Butterfly numbers and weather: predicting historical trends in abundance and the future effects of climate change

By David Roy, P. Rothery, D. Moss, E. Pollard, J. Thomas. 2001

364 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/cf36f3318ef0d248b885aa6383ebf6d5a2dace37

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Citations in the corpus

Determinants of the biogeographical distribution of butterflies in boreal regions (2006, background): “The variation in yearly abundance of most butterfly species is associated with the summer temperature (Roy et al., 2001), a variable which is closely related to the annual temperature sum above 5 C (growing degree-days) used here.”
Survival of Greater Sage-Grouse Chicks and Broods in the Northern Great Basin (2009, result): “The discrepancy in results between Hill (1985) and our study may be related to the intensive predator control that is often conducted in association with upland gamebird management in Europe (Schroeder and Baydack 2001).”
Influence of experimental warming and shading on host–parasitoid synchrony (2010, background): “Again, rain during the adult flight period has been shown to influence butterfly population dynamics (Roy et al., 2001); (5) The interaction between sun hours and rain during the flight season of the previous year; (6) A summary variable combining information on temperature and sunshine hours.”
Population decline assessment, historical baselines, and conservation (2010, background): “Similarly, Roy et al. (2001) used a well-studied correlation between weather and population sizes of 23 species of British butterflies to estimate historical population sizes.”
Assisted colonization in a changing climate: a test‐study using two U.K. butterflies (2009, background): “Climate change; distributions; introductions; range margin; range shift; assisted colonization.”
Monitoring change in the abundance and distribution of insects using butterflies and other indicator groups (2005, background): “They also provide insights about the drivers of population change, ranging from weather effects and climate change (e.g. Pollard et al. 1997; Roy et al. 2001) to habitat degradation (e.”
Effect of local weather on butterfly flight behaviour, movement, and colonization: significance for dispersal under climate change (2011, background): “The effect of both the current and the previous year’s weather was included (see also Roy et al. 2001 ).”
Distance sampling and the challenge of monitoring butterfly populations (2011, neutral): “Most existing applications of butterfly monitoring scheme data are based on trends over time within populations (Roy & Sparks 2000; Roy et al. 2001; Warren et al. 2001; Brereton et al. 2007): the key question here is whether the variation in detectability within populations is of comparable…”
Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change (2001, background): “Many of these butterflies are restricted to warm local environments in Britain and have faster larval growth rates, earlier flight periods and increased abundances at higher temperatures (within the British temperature range”
Beta diversity of geometrid moths (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) in an Andean montane rainforest (2003, background): “Climatic influences were, e.g. detected as the most important factors for population changes in British butterflies (Roy et al., 2001).”
Long-term population trends in widespread British moths (2004, background): “Insect temporal population dynamics have been studied extensively since the 1930’s (Nicholson 1933; Andrewartha and Birch 1954), and the value of long time-series in uncovering patterns (Moran 1953; Royama 1992; Woiwod and Hanski 1992; Roy et al. 2001) or chaotic behaviour (Perry et al.”
Evidence based conservation of butterflies (2011, background): “However, variation in the attributes and breadth of a species’ larval niche under different climates is briefly considered below, and it is relevant to note that the short-term fluctuations (as opposed to long-term trends) of monitored species, which tend to be synchronised across regions (Pollard 1”