Budgetary Forecasts in Europe - the Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes

By Rolf R. Strauch, Mark Hallerberg, J. Hagen. Social Science Research Network, 2004

182 citations recorded by the source corpus.

We analyse the performance of budgetary and growth forecasts of all stability and convergence programmes submitted by EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a second step we explore whether economic, political and institutional factors can explain this pattern. Our analysis indicates that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes in the budgetary position are mainly affected by the cycle, the need of convergence before EMU and by electoral cycles.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Political Science and International Relations

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ccbadd87f36346c79e31bc3b8e919c392092ccc5

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Economics and Econometrics

1. Álvaro M. Pina
2. Nuno Venes
3. Tilman Brück
4. Andreas Stephan
5. Jeffrey A. Frankel

In Political Science and International Relations

1. Álvaro M. Pina
2. Nuno Venes
3. Tilman Brück
4. Andreas Stephan

Citations in the corpus

• Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with Their Budget Deficit Forecasts (2006, background): “In comparison to the ambiguous results provided by Strauch et al (2004), we present strong evidence on the existence of electoral cycles due to the introduction of the SGP.”
• Fiscal Policy in Real Time (2012, unknown): “Taylor (2000a) and Taylor (2000b) argue that the conduct of fiscal policy may be well approximated by a rule (hereafter referred to as “simple” or “Taylor” fiscal rule) relating a measure of the fiscal policy stance, as represented by the capb, to deviations of actual output from its equilibrium lev”
• Fi S cal F oreca S ting le SS on S F rom the literature an D challenge S 1 (2007, unknown): “…these lines, Gentry (1989), Campbell and Ghysels (1995), Artis and Marcellino (1998, 2001), Keereman (1999), Melander et al. (2007), Pons (2000), Strauch et al. (2004), and Bruck and Stephan (2006) detect the presence of biases in the track record of fiscal forecasts of various governmental and…”
• The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: An empirical assessment (2011, background): “…and Economics), Rua Miguel Lupi 20, 1249-078 Lisbon, Portugal c Universidade Lusíada, Rua da Junqueira 188–198, 1349–001 Lisbon, Portugal d CITIS (Research Centre on Tourism, Innovation and Services), Rua da Junqueira 188-198, 1349-001 Lisbon, Portugal a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t”