Group-based forecasting?: A social psychological analysis

By Norbert L. Kerr, Robin Tindale. 2011

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Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science (2012, background): “…subject to biases, including dominance of one or more members of the group, polarization among subsets of members, and groupthink (a mode of thinking that occurs when the desire for harmony in a decision-making group overrides a realistic appraisal of alternatives; Janis 1972; Kerr & Tindale 2011).”
Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results (2011, background): “Such cases are exemplary for individuals' bias that exacerbates at the group level and results in group inefficiencies [25].”
Structured elicitation of expert judgments for threatened species assessment: a case study on a continental scale using email (2012, background): “…to revise their judgments in the light of others in the group while alleviating some of the most pervasive social pressures that emerge in unstructured discussion settings (e.g. Kerr & Tindale 2004, 2011; Table 1) through its use of structured interaction and maintenance of participant anonymity.”