What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities

By Olivier Coibion, Y. Gorodnichenko. 2008

239 citations recorded by the source corpus.

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/c9dbf84b825d0a1cd8075e6f446f02c4da1c3a33

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In Economics and Econometrics

Citations in the corpus

Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence (2015, result): “Finally we include the natural logarithm of current real income of the household.(5) (4)We experimented with ordered logits and found very similar results.”
Sticky Expectations and the Profitability Anomaly (2018, unknown): “These investors have “sticky” expectations à la Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2012, 2015).”
A Theory of Demand Shocks (2009, background): “selection of islands in Bl;t is such that the consumer price index for island l is, in log-linear approximation, pl;t = pt + 1 l;t; (21)”
Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation (2013, unknown): “Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2012) document that both professional and household inflation 11 We found similar qualitative results going back to 1968 by comparing household inflation forecasts with the SPF forecast of the GDP deflator.”
Endogenous Information, Menu Costs and Inflation Persistence (2008, unknown): “However, because of the binary change in the unobserved state y t , forecast disagreement increases after a change in y t which is inconsistent with evidence presented in Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2008).”
The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts (2012, unknown): “…the role of central banks (for a detailed overview of the respective papers, see Table A1 in the Appendix).1 As to the determinants of disagreement, Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2009) use three different surveys of economic forecasts to assess both the support for and the properties of informational…”
House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy (2013, background): “More recently, Coibion and Gorodnichencko (2012) nd robust evidence against full-information rational expectations in survey forecasts for U.S. in ation and unemployment.”
Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments (2017, background): “The policy prescriptions can depend sensibly on how we model the information frictions, but there is no consensus about what the right model may be (Coibion and Gorodnichenko, 2012).”
Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan (2018, unknown): “Crafts and Mills (2012) estimate that the multiplier is below one in the U.K. during the 5Watanabe, Tomoyoshi, and Arata (2010) estimated the output multiplier in Japan between 1965 and 2004.”
Inattentive professional forecasters (2013, unknown): “Coibion & Gorodnichenko (2008) look at the conditional response to various structural shocks of the aggregate error and disagreement implied by surveys to disentangle the sticky-information and the noisy-information models of inattention.”
Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise (2017, unknown): “(See, e.g., Diether, Malloy, and Scherbina 2002; Mankiw, Reis, and Wolfers 2004; Patton and Timmermann 2010; Coibion and Gorodnichenko 2012.)”