Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis

By S. Morse, S. Morse, J. Mazet, Mark E. J. Woolhouse, C. Parrish, D. Carroll, William B. Karesh, W. Karesh, C. Zambrana‐Torrelio, W. Lipkin and 1 more. The Lancet, 2012

884 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Most pandemics—eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza—originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption.

Subfields: Agronomy and Crop Science, Infectious Diseases, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/c686755124eafffdbd7d7312e2ba597ce39cb035

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Citations in the corpus

Rodent reservoirs of future zoonotic diseases (2015, background): “Until now, investigations of disease outbreaks have mostly been reactive, with surveillance efforts targeting a broad host range (5), but because human activities precipitating these events continue to accelerate (4, 6), a more proactive approach is necessary (7, 8).”
Climate-smart agriculture global research agenda: scientific basis for action (2014, background): “The programme, which is run within the US Agency for International Development, leverages existing networks within national and local governments as well as networks of scientists and specialists involved in outbreak reporting, microbial characterization and pathogen discovery [104].”
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Ecology of zoonoses: natural and unnatural histories (2012, background): “73 Study of the ecological, evolutionary, social, economic, and epidemiological mechanisms that facilitate the persistence of common endemic zoonoses and those that drive zoonotic disease emergence in people has intrinsic value.”
The Antimicrobial Resistance Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Management (2014, background): “Consequently, novel pathogens, arising as zoonoses and through other means are exposed to the global antimicrobial use, and so resistance in these new pathogens will also continue to increase (38).”
Further Evidence for Bats as the Evolutionary Source of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (2017, methodology): “through phylogenetic data alone (51), the approach used here is an important tool in Uganda MERS-Like Virus in Bats ®”
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A cloud-compatible bioinformatics pipeline for ultrarapid pathogen identification from next-generation sequencing of clinical samples (2014, background): “There is heightened awareness of the threat from both emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases and the need for enhanced surveillance to avert pandemics (Morse et al. 2012).”