Early-warning signals for critical transitions

By Marten Scheffer, Jordi Bascompte, William A. Brock, V. Brovkin, Stephen R. Carpenter, Vasilis Dakos, Hermann Held, E. V. van Nes, M. Rietkerk, George Sugihara. Nature, 2009

4,493 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Environmental Engineering, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/c5e8862bfd224b8078a77655602c910963df75d3

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Economics and Econometrics

1. Vasilis Dakos
2. Carl Folke
3. Christian Kuehn
4. Stephen R. Carpenter
5. Stephen Polasky
6. Didier Sornette
7. Guy Ouillon
8. Marten Scheffer

In Environmental Engineering

1. Vasilis Dakos
2. Carl Folke
3. Stephen R. Carpenter
4. Marten Scheffer
5. William A. Brock
6. Reinette Biggs
7. E. V. van Nes
8. Sonia Kefi

In Global and Planetary Change

1. Carl Folke
2. Stephen R. Carpenter
3. Vasilis Dakos
4. Reinette Biggs
5. Marten Scheffer
6. William A. Brock
7. Sonia Kefi
8. E. V. van Nes

Citations in the corpus

• Self-organized criticality as a fundamental property of neural systems (2014, background): “Let us emphasize that critical slowing down is not only a property of the specific model considered here, but a general feature of critical phase transitions in the dynamics of a system (Scheffer et al., 2009).”
• Sustainability-oriented innovation systems – managing the green transformation (2012, positive): “…trajectories and foster the development of sustainable substitutes, some of which may 1 ‘Tipping points’ are critical thresholds of complex systems at which the system changes abruptly from one state to another (Scheffer et al., 2009, p. 53). require more than a decade or two to become competitive.”
• Criticality in the brain: A synthesis of neurobiology, models and cognition. (2017, background): “warning system” (Scheffer et al., 2009): To our knowledge, incorporating this approach to seizure prediction within the framework of criticality theory has not yet been achieved.”
• Observing Changing Ecological Diversity in the Anthropocene (2013, background): “In some situations, the actual future trajectory of a system may be predicted, while in other situations, only the likelihood of a dramatic change may be quantifiable (Scheffer et al 2009).”
• Identification of 100 fundamental ecological questions (2013, background): “58–60, 71) (Scheffer et al. 2009), better understanding the role of spatial scale in driving ecosystem processes (e.”
• Mental disorders as networks of problems: a review of recent insights (2016, neutral): “regard is that they can display phase transitions [29] which”
• Dragon-kings: Mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence (2012, background): “Sornette (2002; 2006), Dakos et al. (2008), Scheffer et al. (2009) and others have documented that the theory of bifurcations and phase transitions predicts the presence of early warning signals for the upcoming transition into the major regime shifts that can be called dragon-kings.”
• Conditions favouring Bromus tectorum dominance of endangered sagebrush steppe ecosystems (2013, background): “…semi-arid and arid ecosystems showing that increases in gap connectivity (Busso & Bonvissuto 2009; Okin et al. 2009) and changes in how species abundance is distributed in a community (James et al. 2008) are associated with a loss of ecosystem resistance to invasion (Scheffer et al. 2009).”
• Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts (2010, background): “However, recent theoretical work suggests that there may be generic leading indicators for critical transitions even when mechanistic insight is insufficient to build reliable predictive models (Scheffer et al. 2009).”