Dragon-kings: Mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence
By Didier Sornette, Guy Ouillon. The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 2012
259 citations recorded by the source corpus.
This introductory article presents the special Discussion and Debate volume “From black swans to dragon-kings, is there life beyond power laws?” We summarize and put in perspective the contributions into three main themes: (i) mechanisms for dragon-kings, (ii) detection of dragon-kings and statistical tests and (iii) empirical evidence in a large variety of natural and social systems. Overall, we are pleased to witness significant advances both in the introduction and clarification of underlying mechanisms and in the development of novel efficient tests that demonstrate clear evidence for the presence of dragon-kings in many systems. However, this positive view should be balanced by the fact that this remains a very delicate and difficult field, if only due to the scarcity of data as well as the extraordinary important implications with respect to hazard assessment, risk control and predictability.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Global and Planetary Change, Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d4675e45f7b958460b472452fb48eb98af7cf4e8
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Citations in the corpus
- Power laws and Self-Organized Criticality in Theory and Nature (2013, methodology): “Tools and methods used for the identification of dragon kings often depend on the particularities of the system in question [149, 153].”
- Roadmap on optical rogue waves and extreme events (2016, background): “Hence the appearance of extreme events in the form of solitons is subject to their own ‘dragon-king’ statistical distribution [189].”