The state of the art in stock assessment: where we are and where we are going
By Ray Hilborn. 2003
130 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Throughout the world´s major commercial fisheries the standard paradigm includes fitting a stock assessment model to the data and then applying some form of reference point or a range of reference points, usually a target exploitation rate, to calculate a point estimate of the annual allowable catch. Over the last decade the methods available to be used in these models have changed dramatically from those using only catch, catch-at-age and survey or CPUE data to methods that now use every source of data available in a totally integrated framework. The use of meta-analysis has provided formal statistical methods for incorporating information learned from other stocks. Modern methods make it possible to express uncertainty in all model outputs, but management agencies are only now learning to deal with explicit recognition of uncertainty and have lagged far behind the scientific capability to express uncertainty. While modern stock assessment models have grown increasingly complex and their development is limited to a priesthood of experts, I believe the future trend will be to base management decisions on simple rules that are more often data-based rather than model-based, while the complex models will serve primarily to evaluate the robustness of these decision rules.
Subfields: Accounting, Management Science and Operations Research, Ocean Engineering
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/bc102f488f15df2fd8ba22562a514f48cbf9278f
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Citations in the corpus
- FLR: an open-source framework for the evaluation and development of management strategies (2007, methodology): “Hilborn (2003) forecasts the end of such a treadmill and the increased use of Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE), in which complex models are used primarily to test the robustness of simpler assessment–management rules before implementation, by conducting computer-based experiments that embody…”
- Measuring uncertainty in fisheries stock assessment: the delta method, bootstrap, and MCMC (2013, methodology): “For the purposes of fisheries stock assessment, the theoretical difference between these paradigms is often ignored in practice (Restrepo et al. 2000; Patterson et al. 2001; Gavaris and Ianelli 2002; Hilborn 2003), and the methods are all used to express the plausible range of estimated quantities.”
- An evaluation of an iterative harvest strategy for data-poor fisheries using the length-based spawning potential ratio assessment methodology (2015, background): “…models often include hundreds of estimated parameters, require substantial amounts of data, are based on numerous assumptions, require considerable technical expertise to develop and run, and are often poorly understood by policy makers and other stakeholders (Cotter et al., 2004; Hilborn, 2003).”