When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: on the credibility of credible intervals

By K. Teigen, Magne Jørgensen. 2005

140 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: General Decision Sciences, Management Science and Operations Research

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/bbe384bc4a7765f77a191fbd8da6a814b9afd2f3

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In General Decision Sciences

1. Mark A. Burgman
2. M. McBride
3. Fiona Fidler
4. John K. Kruschke

In Management Science and Operations Research

1. Mark A. Burgman
2. Kerrie L. Mengersen
3. M. McBride
4. Fiona Fidler
5. Randall D. Penfield
6. Peter R. Giacobbi

Citations in the corpus

• Efficiently encoding and modeling subjective probability distributions for quantitative variables. (2016, background): “Other studies, as well, have shown that subjective CIs defined by quantile estimates tend to be too narrow (e.g., Klayman, Soll, González-Vallejo, & Barlas, 1999; Moore, Tenney, & Haran, 2016; Teigen & Jørgensen, 2005).”
• Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science (2012, background): “The addition of this last step takes advantage of the fact that experts are much better at evaluating intervals than producing intervals (Teigen & Jorgensen 2005; Speirs-Bridge et al. 2010).”
• The trouble with overconfidence. (2008, unknown): “Research typically finds that 90% confidence intervals contain the true answer somewhere between 30% and 50% of the time (Teigen & Jorgensen, 2005).”