Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change

By J. Malcolm, A. Markham, R. Neilson, Mike Garaci. 2002

395 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Global and Planetary Change, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/bbc8f381e8496b733e9ad9cc01f985c84d5772d6

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In Ecological Modeling

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Citations in the corpus

The relative importance of deforestation, precipitation change, and temperature sensitivity in determining the future distributions and diversity of Amazonian plant species (2012, background): “As a result, tropical species are predicted to lose climatically suitable habitat faster and will have to migrate greater distances to keep within their suitable climates than will temperate species (Loarie et al., 2009; Malcolm et al., 2002; Wright et al., 2009).”
Distributional migrations, expansions, and contractions of tropical plant species as revealed in dated herbarium records (2012, background): “…the potential for rapid decreases in the amount of suitable habitat available to species (Thomas et al., 2004; Feeley & Silman, 2010b) and the large distances that many tropical species will be required to migrate to remain at equilibrium with climate (Malcolm et al., 2002; Wright et al., 2009).”
The role of forest genetic resources in responding to biotic and abiotic factors in the context of anthropogenic climate change (2014, background): “In addition, rates of natural migration are reduced by forest degradation and fragmentation, which therefore increase vulnerability to climate change (Kellomäki et al., 2001; Malcolm et al., 2002).”
Tropicalization of fish assemblages in temperate biogeographic transition zones (2014, background): “Local extinctions of cold water species may occur due to unsuitable climatic conditions (Malcolm et al. 2002), but will possibly take longer and occur less frequently than the appearance of new tropical immigrants.”
Seed dispersal distances: a typology based on dispersal modes and plant traits (2007, background): “…in fragmented landscapes strongly depends on their dispersal potential (Fischer et al. 1996; Couvreur et al. 2004; Soons and Ozinga 2005), and the predicted global warming will require considerable migration rates for plant species to remain under similar climatic conditions (Malcolm et al. 2002).”
On metapopulations and microrefugia: palaeoecological insights (2011, background): “…of a rapidly changing climate, are to ascertain: (1) how species will respond to ongoing climate change, (2) whether rates of migration can match required range shifts (Hannah et al., 2002; Malcolm et al., 2002; Parmesan & Yohe, 2003), and thus (3) which species are most vulnerable to extinction.”
Interactions between growth, demography and biotic interactions in determining species range limits in a warming world: the case of Pinus sylvestris (2012, background): “For example, whereas Scots pine migrated 400 m per year after last glaciations (Savolainen et al., 2011), Malcolm et al. (2002) have indicated that trees will have to be able to migrate at a rate of over 1000 m per year to be able to keep pace with human-induced environmental change.”
Genetic differentiation and plasticity interact along temperature and precipitation gradients to determine plant performance under climate change (2017, background): “Journal of Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society to face climate change in situ (e.g. Davis & Shaw 2001; Malcolm et al. 2002; Thomas et al. 2004; Loarie et al. 2009; Bullock et al. 2012; Ravenscroft, Fridley & Grime 2014).”
Plants in a warmer world (2003, background): “species will keep pace with the rate of global warming (e.g. Dyer 1995; Malcolm et al. 2002).”
Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations (2008, methodology): “Climate-based species distribution models predict the necessity of wholesale redistributions of tree species over the next century (Malcolm et al. 2002), usually without any intrinsic consideration of the biological capacity of populations to do so, or recognition of the extent and role of local…”
Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals (2013, background): “[32], required migration rates of ≥1 km per year were relatively common in all models if species were to remain within their bioclimatic envelopes,”
Impact of climate change on biodiversity and associated key ecosystem services in Africa: a systematic review (2018, background): “Invasive species have been shown to be highly adaptive to variable climatic conditions (Malcolm et al. 2002).”
Garden plants get a head start on climate change (2008, background): “1-5 km per year (Iverson and Prasad 2002; Malcolm et al. 2002; Ohlemüller et al. 2006).”