Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations

By S. Aitken, Sam Yeaman, J. Holliday, Tongli Wang, Sierra Curtis-McLane. Evolutionary Applications, 2008

2,099 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Species distribution models predict a wholesale redistribution of trees in the next century, yet migratory responses necessary to spatially track climates far exceed maximum post‐glacial rates. The extent to which populations will adapt will depend upon phenotypic variation, strength of selection, fecundity, interspecific competition, and biotic interactions. Populations of temperate and boreal trees show moderate to strong clines in phenology and growth along temperature gradients, indicating substantial local adaptation. Traits involved in local adaptation appear to be the product of small effects of many genes, and the resulting genotypic redundancy combined with high fecundity may facilitate rapid local adaptation despite high gene flow. Gene flow with preadapted alleles from warmer climates may promote adaptation and migration at the leading edge, while populations at the rear will likely face extirpation. Widespread species with large populations and high fecundity are likely to persist and adapt, but will likely suffer adaptational lag for a few generations. As all tree species will be suffering lags, interspecific competition may weaken, facilitating persistence under suboptimal conditions. Species with small populations, fragmented ranges, low fecundity, or suffering declines due to introduced insects or diseases should be candidates for facilitated migration.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d555e01c693f0c34e7029d3e7fa33f88935ccdf5

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Citations in the corpus

Variation of xylem vessel diameters across a climate gradient: insight from a reciprocal transplant experiment with a widespread boreal tree (2015, background): “Besides phenotypic plasticity, adapta- tion and migration are two other mechanisms through which plants can respond to environmental change; how- ever, these adjustments require multiple generations of nat- ural selection, seed dispersal and successful seed establishment (Aitken et al. 2008).”
Genetic variation in productivity of foundation riparian species at the edge of their distribution: implications for restoration and assisted migration in a warming climate (2011, background): “To help moderate the negative consequences of maladaptation, such as reduced productivity and increased mortality, it has been suggested that genotypes bestsuited to a predicted future climate be preferentially used in ecosystem restoration efforts – termed assisted migration (Ledig & Kitzmiller, 19”
Rapid responses of soil microorganisms improve plant fitness in novel environments (2012, background): “These results suggest that plants may not be limited to “adapt or migrate” strategies (49) for persisting in the face of anthropogenic environmental change and instead may be facilitated by rapid responses of the surrounding biotic community.”
Placing Forestry in the Assisted Migration Debate (2012, background): “Furthermore, forestry AM may help to conserve alleles that might otherwise be lost at range margins; populations at the southern or downslope range limit have been identified as being particularly sensitive to climate change (Aitken et al. 2008).”
Phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary demographic responses to climate change: taking theory out to the field (2013, background): “predicting their potential range shifts under climate change (Aitken et al. 2008).”
Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time. (2012, background): “It is possible that shrub species or genotypes with the potential to respond favourably to warming are currently absent from these colder regions, but long-distance migration or gene-flow could overcome some of these genetic constraints (Alsos et al. 2007; Aitken et al. 2008).”
Quantifying phenological plasticity to temperature in two temperate tree species (2010, background): “Although species migrations have been reported over the last few decades (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Bertin 2008), in many cases the current rate of global warming might be too rapid for natural migration to successfully deliver species to suitable habitats (Rice & Emery 2003; Aitken et al. 2008).”
Assisted Gene Flow to Facilitate Local Adaptation to Climate Change (2013, background): “Maladaptation to climate can also exacerbate the decline of small populations for which conservation is a concern (Aitken et al. 2008, Anderson et al. 2012, O’Connor et al. 2012).”