Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

By D. Richardson. 2000

501 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b71cbc9003b07487b3f2d930846525343b07f2f3

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In Atmospheric Science

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Citations in the corpus

Fuzzy verification of high‐resolution gridded forecasts: a review and proposed framework (2008, unknown): “Described in detail by Richardson (2000), V is computed as V = C L (hits + false alarms − 1) + misses C L (Pclim − 1) if C L Pclim C L (hits + false alarms) + misses − Pclim Pclim ( C L − 1 ) if C L ≥ Pclim (A.15) When applied to a probabilistic forecast system, it is necessary to compute…”
SOLAR FLARE PREDICTION USING SDO/HMI VECTOR MAGNETIC FIELD DATA WITH A MACHINE-LEARNING ALGORITHM (2014, background): “The TSS ranges from −1 to +1 and has the desirable characteristic of equitability (Richardson, 2000): random or constant forecasts score zero, perfect forecasts score 1, and forecasts that are always wrong score −1.”
Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate (2002, background): “, as used in short- and medium-term forecasts of weather and climate, are more useful than deterministic forecasts using a ‘best guess’ scenario to address this sort of proble”
Forecast verification: current status and future directions (2008, methodology): “As an example, Richardson (2000) describes a method to estimate the value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system with respect to a deterministic forecast, which depends on the user’s cost and loss ratio.”
Sensitivity of Several Performance Measures to Displacement Error, Bias, and Event Frequency (2006, unknown): “dition, Richardson (2000) called this the Kuipers score,”
Comparison of ensemble‐MOS methods in the Lorenz '96 setting (2006, background): “Larger ensembles would be expected to improve probability forecasts for rarer events such as Pr{V ≤ q1/10}, whereas smaller ensembles could be adequate for forecasts pertaining to the more common events (Richardson 2000).”
The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: From days to decades (2002, methodology): “Over the years, Angström’s model has been re ned and developed by Thompson (1952), Murphy (1977), Katz and Murphy (1997) and Richardson (2000a, 2001).”
Early Warnings of Severe Weather from Ensemble Forecast Information (2004, methodology): “1989), Reliability and Brier score (Wilks 1995), and Relative Economic Value (Richardson 2000).”
Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. (2009, background): “Cost–loss functions, although simple to use in principle (see Laio and Tamea, 2007; Richardson, 2000) do not necessarily lead to optimal decisions for rare events (Atger, 2001) and often fail to incorporate the full spectrum of expert judgments (for example public perception and trust), which is nee”
Estimation of high-dimensional prior and posterior covariance matrices in Kalman filter variants (2007, background): “…in operational NWP settings where the sample size is typically several orders of magnitude smaller than the system dimension: e.g. n = 17 at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) (Pellerin et al., 2003), and n = 51 at European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) (Richardson, 2000).”
Ensemble forecasting (2008, background): “The cost/loss model [26,27] is relevant in this respect.”
A Comparison of Breeding and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Ensemble Forecast Schemes (2003, unknown): “Tests such as rank histograms (Hamill 2001), the relative operating characteristics (ROC) curve (Mason 1982; Richardson 2000), and the Brier Skill Score (Brier 1950; Atger 1999) will not be considered here because they require a PDF to be derived from the ensemble forecast and, in our view, the…”
Comparison of Some Statistical Methods of Probabilistic Forecasting of ENSO. (2002, background): “Unconditional biases and imperfect reliability curves can effect poor half-Brier and ranked probability skill scores, without necessarily detracting from forecast value (Richardson 2000).”
A skill score based on economic value for probability forecasts (2001, methodology): “Note added in proof: Recently Richardson (2000) has described a procedure similar to that presented here, but which assumes in effect that the forecasts will be calibrated.”
DEVELOPMENT OF A EUROPEAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM FOR SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION (DEMETER) (2004, background): “Brankovic, and D. S. Richardson, 2000: A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations.”
Evaluation of a Short-Range Multimodel Ensemble System (2001, methodology): “For further details on this method see Mason (1982), Harvey et al. (1992), and Richardson (2000).”