Integrating biophysical models and evolutionary theory to predict climatic impacts on species’ ranges: the dengue mosquito Aedes aegypti in Australia

By Michael R. Kearney, Warren P. Porter, C. Williams, S. Ritchie, A. Hoffmann. 2009

416 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Genetics, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b238e177f801be03aeb55af0d77f1b9f75d3895f

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Citations in the corpus

Phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary demographic responses to climate change: taking theory out to the field (2013, methodology): “The most straightforward way is to estimate directional and quadratic selection gradients (average slope and curvature of the fitness landscape, respectively) using a regression method (Lande & Arnold 1983) and then to compute the distance to the optimum by combining these gradients, assuming a give”
Terrestrial insects and climate change: adaptive responses in key traits (2019, background): “In some circumstances, sufficient data to parametrize models may exist (Kearney et al., 2009), although a directive between ecologist, physiologists and modellers to collect the data required for better models is urgently needed.”
Adaptation, Plasticity, and Extinction in a Changing Environment: Towards a Predictive Theory (2010, background): “While a new generation of ‘‘processbased’’ (or ‘‘mechanistic’’) niche models is being developed to overcome these limitations [9–11], they currently rely on simplified demographic processes and generally overlook evolution in response to climate change (but see [12]).”
Climate Change Impacts on Seagrass Meadows and Macroalgal Forests: An Integrative Perspective on Acclimation and Adaptation Potential (2018, background): “Species distribution models, also called “Ecological Niche Models” (ENMs) (Guisan and Zimmermann, 2000; Kelly et al., 2001; Murphy and Lovett-Doust, 2007; Elith and Leathwick, 2009; Kearney et al., 2009), have been applied to seagrasses and macroalgae, aiming to predict species distribution and habi”
Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change (2017, background): “Whereas other mechanistic approaches often rely 118 on methods like dynamic energy budgets to build complex biophysical models for Aedes 119 mosquitoes [22,23], and subsequently (sometimes) extrapolate potential epidemiological 120 dynamics [5], our approach uses a single basic cutoff for the therma”
Long-distance gene flow and adaptation of forest trees to rapid climate change (2012, background): “Microevolutionary phenomena described above have only started to be incorporated in such ecological forecast models (Kearney et al. 2009; Kuparinen et al. 2010).”
Analysing and mapping species range dynamics using occupancy models (2013, background): “The study of species distributions is an area of great scientific interest in ecology (e.g. Graham et al., 2006; Pearman et al., 2008) and evolutionary biology (e.g. Kearney et al., 2009).”
Impacts of recent climate change on terrestrial flora and fauna: Some emerging Australian examples (2018, background): “Detailed mechanistic models have also been developed to incorporate timing issues and evolutionary changes in predicting climate change impacts (e.g. Kearney et al. 2009; Bush et al. 2016).”
Physiological Correlates of Geographic Range in Animals (2011, background): “Indeed, Kearney et al. (2009) integrated such biophysical models with evolutionary theory to predict climatic impacts on the dengue mosquito distribution range in Australia.”