The global distribution and population at risk of malaria: past, present, and future

By Simon Iain Hay, C. Guerra, Andrew J. Tatem, Abdisalan M. Noor, Robert W. Snow. Lancet. Infectious Diseases (Print), 2004

1,028 citations recorded by the source corpus.

The aim of this review was to use geographic information systems in combination with historical maps to quantify the anthropogenic impact on the distribution of malaria in the 20th century. The nature of the cartographic record enabled global and regional patterns in the spatial limits of malaria to be investigated at six intervals between 1900 and 2002. Contemporaneous population surfaces also allowed changes in the numbers of people living in areas of malaria risk to be quantified. These data showed that during the past century, despite human activities reducing by half the land area supporting malaria, demographic changes resulted in a 2 billion increase in the total population exposed to malaria risk. Furthermore, stratifying the present day malaria extent by endemicity class and examining regional differences highlighted that nearly 1 billion people are exposed to hypoendemic and mesoendemic malaria in southeast Asia. We further concluded that some distortion in estimates of the regional distribution of malaria burden could have resulted from different methods used to calculate burden in Africa. Crude estimates of the national prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection based on endemicity maps corroborate these assertions. Finally, population projections for 2010 were used to investigate the potential effect of future demographic changes. These indicated that although population growth will not substantially change the regional distribution of people at malaria risk, around 400 million births will occur within the boundary of current distribution of malaria by 2010: the date by which the Roll Back Malaria initiative is challenged to halve the world’s malaria burden.

Subfields: Endocrinology, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b166ea6ff36b040ca97d413c6c0be7161ed7b811

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Citations in the corpus

Conquering the intolerable burden of malaria: what's new, what's needed: a summary. (2004, background): “This is an increase of close to 10% over the past decade.(8)”
Multidrug-Resistant Plasmodium vivax Associated with Severe and Fatal Malaria: A Prospective Study in Papua, Indonesia (2008, background): “vivax infection is a prominent cause of clinical malaria [3,19].”
A World Malaria Map: Plasmodium falciparum Endemicity in 2007 (2009, background): “This assumption is unfounded because the global distribution of malaria has contracted substantially [18] since its hypothesised maximum distribution circa 1900 [14].”
Vivax malaria (2007, result): “5-fold higher than that derived from national statistics.(4) In preliminary work, Hay and colleagues also found that non-falciparum ma-”
Global trends in antimicrobial use in food animals (2015, background): “Similar mapping exercises have been conducted for other major public health issues, such as malaria (32) or tuberculosis (33).”
The Effect of the Tsetse Fly on African Development (2015, methodology): “A coarser malaria map from the year 1900 is used in a robustness check (Hay et al., 2004).”
The global distribution of clinical episodes of Plasmodium falciparum malaria (2005, background): “dtd" [ ]> Interest in mapping the global distribution of malaria is motivated by a need to define populations at risk for appropriate resource allocatio”
The spatial allocation of population: a review of large-scale gridded population data products and their fitness for use (2019, background): “, 2017), public health campaigns and assessments (Snow et al., 1999; Hay et al., 2004; Jones et al., 2008; Weber et al., 2018; Dunn et al., 2019), and sustainable resource management (Koch et al.”
The Economic Impacts of Climate Change (2018, background): “Malaria was endemic in large parts of Europe and North America (Hay et al. 2004).”
Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted. (2013, result): “This is consistent with historical records of malaria incidence (Hay et al. 2004) and suggests that economic development and vector control, not temperature, currently impede transmission in temperate climates (Lafferty 2009; Gething et al. 2010; Béguin et al. 2011).”