Empirical evidence on individual, group and shrinkage seasonal indices

By Huijing Chen, John E. Boylan. 2008

26 citations recorded by the source corpus.

This paper provides empirical evidence on forecasting seasonal demand using both individual and group seasonal indices methods. The findings show that the group seasonal indices methods outperform the individual seasonal indices method. This paper also offers empirical results from comparing two shrinkage methods with the group seasonal indices methods. The theoretical rules developed by the authors for choosing between group seasonal indices and individual seasonal indices produce more accurate forecasts than do published rules for choosing between shrinkage methods, when measured by the MSE, and are competitive when measured by the symmetric MAPE.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

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In Economics and Econometrics

1. Hisham El-Shishiny
2. Amir F. Atiya
3. Robert Andrawis

Citations in the corpus

• Forecast combinations of computational intelligence and linear models for the NN5 time series forecasting competition (2011, background): “Chen and Boylan (2008) performed a very interesting study of individual versus group seasonal analysis, particularly highlighting the powerful performances of group seasonal models.”
• Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative (2015, unknown): “Chen and Boylan (2008) test seasonal factor damping procedures on 218 monthly series of lightbulb sales.”