The Great Shift: Macroeconomic Projections for the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon

By J.-P. Foure, A. Bénassy-Quéré, Lionel Fontagné. 2012

129 citations recorded by the source corpus.

We present growth scenarios for 147 countries to 2050, based on MaGE (Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy), a three-factor production function that includes capital, labour and energy. We improve on the literature by accounting for the energy constraint through dynamic modelling of energy productivity, and departing from the assumptions of either a closed economy or full capital mobility by applying a Feldstein-Horioka-type relationship between savings and investment rates. Our results suggest that, accounting for relative price variations, China could account for 33% of the world economy in 2050, which would be much more than the United States (9%), India (8%), the European Union (12%) and Japan (5%). They suggest also that China would overtake the United States around 2020 (2040 at constant relative prices). However, in terms of standards of living, measured through GDP per capita in purchasing power parity, China would still lag 10 percent behind the United States at the 2050 horizon.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/aa88f1893d2e9d4c76afd00261494f6ff9838e37

Citations in the corpus

• A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050 (2014, unknown): “Figure 2 Past and projected quantities of crop production, 1961, 2010 and 2050. Source: Developed by the authors. Data for 1961 and 2010 are from FAO (2012a). 2050 data were derived by the authors using data and procedures as described in Pardey et al. (2014). Note: ‘2050 iAP’ represents the midline”