Holt–Winters Forecasting: An Alternative Formulation Applied to UK Air Passenger Data

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Combination of long term and short term forecasts, with application to tourism demand forecasting (2011, result): “…smoothing to domestic tourism to Las Vegas and showed that it obtains a level of accuracy comparable to those of other, more sophisticated models; and Bermudez, Segura, and Vercher (2007), who applied Holt-Winters model (the seasonal version of Holt's exponential smoothing) to UK arrivals by air.”
Bayesian forecasting with the Holt–Winters model (2010, methodology): “The above likelihood function of Y has been used (Bermúdez et al, 2007) in order to obtain maximum likelihood estimators, point forecasts and a new approximation to prediction intervals that, in a large simulation study, behaved more accurately than the usual ones (Yar and Chatfield, 1990; Hyndman…”
The causal relationship between GDP and domestic air passenger traffic in Brazil (2010, background): “The literature in general lacks any analysis of the properties of air transport historical time series, with the exception of studies using univariate time series to estimate demand (Grubb and Mason 2001, Fernandes and Pacheco 2006, Bermudez et al. 2007).”