Perils of Long-Range Energy Forecasting

By V. Smil. 2000

117 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Global and Planetary Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/a9fffc15713e0fc6298e86dfaedd333e40c8d9e8

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In Global and Planetary Change

In Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

Citations in the corpus

Forecasts, scenarios, visions, backcasts and roadmaps to the hydrogen economy: A review of the hydrogen futures literature (2006, background): “However, forecasts, particularly over long time-horizons, have been widely criticised for an overly deterministic view of the future (Berkhout and Hertin, 2002; Smil, 2000), and of technological change (Geels and Smit, 2000).”
Reducing energy demand through low carbon innovation: A sociotechnical transitions perspective and thirteen research debates (2018, background): “Scenarios of both technology diffusion and energy consumption are regularly produced by multiple public and private institutions and it would be useful to examine and compare their underlying assumptions, the processes through which they are constructed, their historical (in)accuracy and the perils ”
Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation (2017, result): “IAM projections of energy prices and demand have also been compared against unfolding near-term observations (Craig et al. 2002; Pilavachi et al. 2008; Smil 2000).”
On the baseline evolution of automobile fuel economy in Europe (2006, background): “As Smil (2000) has demonstrated, long-term energy forecasts will certainly be wrong in both qualitative and quantitative terms, as they are unable to predict major discontinuities or disruptions in social and economic conditions.”
Future capacity growth of energy technologies: are scenarios consistent with historical evidence? (2013, background): “Smil (2000) offers a more circumspect view that future potentials for new energy technologies are repeatedly over-estimated.”
Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review (2013, background): “Finally, Smil (2000) and Bezdek and Wendling (2002) pinpoint that long range energy forecasters have made many inaccurate projections, mostly as overestimations.”