Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys

By Nicholas S. Souleles. 2004

457 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Accounting, Economics and Econometrics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/a924c537d1137a57b03db23de48a83076bc186e6

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Citations in the corpus

Rational Forecasts or Social Opinion Dynamics? Identification of Interaction Effects in a Business Climate Survey (2009, methodology): “To test for social interaction in opinion formation, we will adopt a formalization along the lines of Weidlich and Haag (1983) and Lux (1995).”
Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better? (2007, unknown): “Several authors, including Thomas (1999), Mehra (2002), and Souleles (2004), document that survey forecasts are biased.”
Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence (2015, methodology): “To control for the financing costs , we add an aggregate measure of the 30-year mortgage rate to the model.(13) Unfortunately, the data on qualitative one-year and five-year house price expectations - (Q14) and (Q15), respectively are not available for the period prior to May 2007.”
Consumer sentiment, the economy, and the news media (2004, unknown): “Several authors have examined the relationship between sentiment and consumption, one of the most recent is Souleles (2004).”
Do Consumers Choose the Right Credit Contracts (2015, background): “With stochastic income and spending needs (e.g., medical emergencies, auto break-downs, etc.), some consumers will of course find ex post that they have chosen the suboptimal contract, even if their decision-making was ex ante perfectly rational (e.g., Souleles, 2004).”
Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise (2017, unknown): “and Zafar (2015) surveyed college students regarding their choice of major, elicited expectations for the monetary and non-monetary returns to alternative majors, and combined the expectations and choice date to estimate random utility models of choice of major.”
Expectations and Investment (2015, unknown): “Souleles (2004) finds that consumer expectations are biased and inefficient, yet are strong predictors of household spending.”
Measuring news sentiment (2020, background): “These measures have been shown to have important predictive power, helping to forecast macroeconomic outcomes even after controlling for a host of factors (Souleles (2004), Carroll, Fuhrer, and Wilcox (1994), Bram and Ludvigson (1998)).”
The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professionals (2012, unknown): “In particular, results of Souleles (2004) and Bryan and Venkatu (2001) suggest that households may not necessarily have the official inflation rate in mind, but may rather refer to inflation as observed in their private consumption basket.”
Evolution of Forecast Disagreement in a Bayesian Learning Model (2008, background): “2 See Jonung (1981), Zarnowitz and Lambros (1987), Lahiri et al. (1988), Maddala (1991), Ivanova and Lahiri (1998), Souleles (2004), and Capistran and Timmermann (2006), among many others. professional forecasters well.”