Refining the Global Spatial Limits of Dengue Virus Transmission by Evidence-Based Consensus
By O. Brady, Peter W. Gething, S. Bhatt, J. Messina, John S. Brownstein, A. Hoen, C. Moyes, A. Farlow, Thomas W. Scott, Simon Iain Hay. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2012
1,682 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Background Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status. Methods/Principal Findings A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence. Conclusion The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work.
Subfields: Epidemiology, Infectious Diseases, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/a0ced2fa0eaf6a6a16d376609109ebcd4305bc09
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Citations in the corpus
- Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models (2017, background): “9 billion people in 120 countries at risk [1].”
- The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus (2015, positive): “…and more recently introduced to Europe ( ECDC, 2014 ; Schaffner and Mathis, 2014 ), is the most prevalent human arboviral infection causing 100 million apparent annual infections world-wide with almost half of the world’s population at risk of infection ( Brady et al., 2012 ; Bhatt et al., 2013 ).”
- Epidemiology of dengue: past, present and future prospects (2013, background): “97 billion people living in 128 countries are at risk of dengue globally, 824 million in urban residences, and 763 in peri-urban residences.(42) The same group published again in April 2013 using cartographic approaches.”