Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models
By Erin A. Mordecai, Jeremy M. Cohen, M. Evans, Prithvi Gudapati, Leah R. Johnson, C. Lippi, Kerri L. Miazgowicz, C. Murdock, Jason Rohr, Sadie J. Ryan and 5 more. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2017
615 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18–34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26–29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.
Subfields: Infectious Diseases, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/9b83677c59391ce85716e04740d5110469d2cb1c
How researchers see this paper
The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.
In Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Citations in the corpus
- Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease (2019, methodology): “…32–33 20 39 Parham & Michael (2010) Falciparum malaria (Anopheles stephensi) 29 12 38 Shapiro et al. (2017) DENV, CHIKV, ZIKV (Ae. aegypti) 29 18 35 Mordecai et al. (2017) DENV, CHIKV, ZIKV (Ae. albopictus) 26 16 32 Mordecai et al. (2017) CHIKV (Ae. aegypti) 30 – – Johansson et al. (2014) DENV…”
- Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change (2017, methodology): “On the other hand, Ae. aegypti may be more relevant as a chikungunya vector in the Americas, given historical precedent from the explosive 2015 outbreak [51].”