Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010-11 Surge in Food Prices

By M. Ivanic, Will Martin, H. Zaman. 2011

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Global food prices have increased substantially since mid-2010, as have prices in many developing countries. In this study we assess the poverty impact of the price changes between June and December 2010 in twenty-eight low and middle income countries. This is done by gathering detailed information on individual households' food production and consumption levels for thirty-eight agricultural and food commodities to assess the impacts on household welfare. This study estimates that this sudden food price surge increased the number of poor people globally, but with considerably different impacts in different countries. The heterogeneity of these impacts is partly related to the wide variation in the transmission of global prices to local prices and partly to differences in households' patterns of production and consumption. On balance, the adverse welfare impact on net buyers outweighs the benefits to net sellers resulting in an increase in the number of poor and in the depth of poverty. We estimate that the average poverty change was 1.1 percentage points in low income countries and 0.7 percentage points in middle income countries with a net increase of 44 million people falling below the $1.25 per day extreme poverty line.

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Citations in the corpus

Global Food Price Volatility and Spikes: An Overview of Costs, Causes, and Solutions (2012, background): “A recent World Bank simulation suggests that the 2011 food price hike has pushed 68 million people into poverty and pulled 24 million people out of poverty, a net increase of 44 million poor people (Ivanic et al. 2011).”
Oil and food prices in Malaysia: a nonlinear ARDL analysis (2015, background): “aAmong the much debated implications of food price increases are malnutrition and poverty (Ivanic et al., 2012, Zheng and Henneberry, 2012, Anriquez et al., 2013, Fujii, 2013, Wood et al. 2012). bThe list of studies on oil and commodity price links is extensive and we mention only few…”
The Impact of the Global Food Crisis on Self-Assessed Food Security (2013, methodology): “…of subjective indicators, which are now widely used in the contexts of general well-being (e.g., Headey et al. 2010; Kahneman and Deaton 2010; Deaton 2010; 2011), poverty (Ravallion 2012), and food security (Deitchler et al. 2010), as well as some specific problems with the Gallup indicator.”
Market interdependence and volatility transmission among major crops (2016, background): “Moreover, the excess co-movement hypothesis is often 1 According to Ivanic, Martin, and Zaman (2011) and Robles and Torero (2010), the recent upsurges in commodity prices of 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 had an overall negative welfare effect on the population, particularly on the poor.”
Trade Liberalization and Poverty: What Have We Learned in a Decade? (2014, background): “For example, Ivanic et al. (2012) consider the boom in 2010 in the prices of 38 agricultural commodities by using detailed data on patterns of production and consumption in 28 countries.”
The Economic Origins of Conflict in Africa (2017, unknown): “29 (29)While it is not a critical assumption, Ivanic et al. (2012) do suggest that the 2011 food price spike reduced net consumers’ real wages in rural regions.”
The Long Green Revolution (2013, background): “Today, there are around one billion undernourished (see FAO 2011b and subsequently Ivanic et al. 2011).”
Global Oil Prices and Local Food Prices: Evidence from East Africa (2016, unknown): “The specter of such consequences commonly induces policymakers to intervene in an attempt to dampen pass-through from international markets (Ivanic et al. 2012).”
Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices (2014, unknown): “Kilian and Murphy (2014), Kilian and Lee (2014), and Fattouh et al.”
The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses (2015, unknown): “…a 21 percent rise in global rise prices was followed by a broadly similar rise in domestic rice prices in these countries (Ivanic, Martin, and Zaman 2012). expectations in high-income countries and reduced price pressure in some large oil importing emerging economies has impacted the debate…”
Food Prices, Wages, and Welfare in Rural India (2013, unknown): “By contrast, procurement of pulses and oilseeds has been minimal, as market prices have consistently exceeded MSPs.(18) During and after the sharp run-up in international food prices in 2007-08, the Government of India imposed export bans on rice, wheat, and a few other agricultural commodities in a”