A stratospheric influence on the winter NAO and North Atlantic surface climate

By Adam A. Scaife, J. Knight, Geoffrey K. Vallis, C. Folland. 2005

316 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Oceanography

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/9efae25d0bac6c4381e119a6772edb464beadb16

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Atmospheric Science

1. M. Lockwood
2. A. Butler
3. Adam A. Scaife
4. T. G. Shepherd
5. T. Birner
6. C. Garfinkel
7. L. Gray
8. Andrew Gettelman

In Global and Planetary Change

1. M. Lockwood
2. A. Butler
3. Adam A. Scaife
4. L. Gray
5. T. G. Shepherd
6. C. Garfinkel
7. T. Birner
8. J. Haigh

In Oceanography

1. M. Lockwood
2. T. Woollings
3. N. Krivova
4. B. Hoskins
5. C. Cagnazzo
6. S. Solanki
7. E. Manzini
8. L. Harris

Citations in the corpus

• Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity? (2010, background): “The observed increasing trend in the NAO between 1965 and 1995 may have contributed considerably to the warming trend in European regional temperatures (including CET) in winter [9] and solar modulation of the NAO has been suggested as a cause of the cold European winters experienced during the Maun”
• The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 1. Simulation Characteristics With Prescribed SSTs (2018, background): “The wind and temperature anomalies associated with the stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) can propagate downward into the troposphere and significantly alter the weather at the surface (e.g., Baldwin & Dunkerton, 2001; Scaife et al., 2005).”
• Stratosphere key for wintertime atmospheric response to warm Atlantic decadal conditions (2014, result): “It has been shown that artificially imposed low-frequency variations in the strength of the stratospheric vortex can drive changes in the NAO, comparable to those observed (Scaife et al. 2005).”
• Defining Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (2015, background): “The stratosphere experiences low-frequency variability on interannual and decadal time scales, as well as long-term trends, due to both natural variability like the solar cycle (e.g., Labitzke et al. 2006) and anthropogenic change (e.g., Butchart et al. 2000; Scaife et al. 2005).”
• Impact of the Stratosphere on the Winter Tropospheric Teleconnections between ENSO and the North Atlantic and European Region (2009, methodology): “Scaife et al. (2005) applied an experimental design similar to Corresponding author address: Chiara Cagnazzo, Centro EuroMediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Viale Aldo Moro 44, 40127 Bologna, Italy.”
• Solar Influence on Global and Regional Climates (2012, background): “…and Stott 2006), and modelling has shown that stratospheric trends over recent decades, along with downward links to surface, are indeed strong enough to explain much of the prominent trend in the NAO and hence regional winter climate in Europe between the 1960s and the 1990s (Scaife et al. 2005).”
• The Teleconnection of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the Stratosphere (2019, background): “…Tripathi, Charlton-Perez, et al., 2015; Tripathi, Baldwin, et al., 2015) to decadal (e.g., Garfinkel, Son, et al., 2017; Ivy et al., 2014; Kidston et al., 2015; Kretschmer et al., 2018; Reichler et al., 2012) and longer time scales (Omrani et al., 2014; Scaife et al., 2005; Waugh et al., 2015).”
• Arctic Oscillation response to volcanic eruptions in the IPCC AR4 climate models (2006, background): “This observed trend in the AO index is generally not well reproduced by current GCMs when forced with the historical trends of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration [Osborn, 2004; Gillett, 2005; Knutson et al., 2006; Scaife et al., 2005].”
• Climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interaction (2012, background): “Most models used for future climate projection devote only a small fraction of their total computational cost to the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate is often poorly reproduced in simulations of past climate (Scaife et al. 2005; Gillett 2005).”
• The association between stratospheric weak polar vortex events and cold air outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere (2009, background): “More work is therefore needed to address the chain of cause and effect and to investigate tropospheric precursors of weak vortex events, adding to existing studies of troposphere–stratosphere interactions (Kuroda and Kodera, 1999; Chen et al., 2003; Polvani and Waugh, 2004; Reichler et al., 2005; Sc”
• Solar Irradiance Variability and Climate (2013, background): “Indeed, temperature maps constructed from a wide selection of proxy temperature data typically give the spatial pattern of temperature difference between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, c.950–1250) and the LIA, showing a pattern similar to a positive NAO.”
• Stratospheric Communication of El Niño Teleconnections to European Winter (2009, background): “In both the observational and modeling studies, weak stratospheric westerly regimes tend to be a precursor to negative NAO phases in the winter troposphere (Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001; Scaife et al. 2005) and, as such, a stratospheric role in the El Niño teleconnection to Europe has gained credence ”
• Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere (2011, background): “1 ), and although the mechanism is still subject to debate it involves a dynamically balanced tropospheric response to the stratospheric circulation change above, and occurs as a robust feature of experiments where the stratosphere is perturbe”
• Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions (2012, result): “Consistent with former studies (e.g., Kodera 1994; Scaife et al. 2005; Stenchikov et al. 2006), its main driver is an initial post-eruption enhanced positive NAO phase (Figs.”
• The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time‐scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts (2015, background): “…the diffusion parameter in the stratosphere (e.g. Boville, 1984; Boville and Baumhefner, 1990), to applying varying heating rates to force changes to the stratospheric zonal mean wind (e.g. Kodera et al., 1990), to directly damping the zonal wind within the polar vortex (e.g. Scaife et al., 2005).”
• A New Rossby Wave–Breaking Interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (2008, background): “There is also evidence that variability of the stratospheric polar vortex can influence the occurrence of tropospheric wave breaking, in line with the evidence presented by Scaife et al. (2005) and Wittman et al. (2007).”
• Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on the earth system (2012, background): “Prescribing trends in the lower stratosphere makes it possible to capture the tropospheric trends without affecting the global-mean warming signal (Scaife et al. 2005), and improved stratospheric variability in coupled climate models has been shown to improve the simulation of twentieth-century…”