Going against the flow: potential mechanisms for unexpected downslope range shifts in a warming climate

By Jonathan Lenoir, J. Gégout, Antoine Guisan, P. Vittoz, Thomas Wohlgemuth, N. E. Zimmermann, S. Dullinger, H. Pauli, W. Willner, Jens‐Christian Svenning. 2010

426 citations recorded by the source corpus.

J. Lenoir (lenoir.john@gmail.com), The Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity Group, Dept of Biological Sciences, Aarhus Univ., Ny Munkegade 114,DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark and AgroParisTech, UMR1092 AgroParisTech-INRA, Laboratoire d’Etude des Ressources Foreˆt-Bois (LERFoB),14 rue Girardet, FR-54000 Nancy, France. J.-C. Ge´gout, AgroParisTech, UMR1092 AgroParisTech-INRA, Laboratoire d’Etude desRessources Foreˆt-Bois (LERFoB), 14 rue Girardet, FR-54000 Nancy, France, and Center for Advanced Studies in Ecology and Biodiversity(CASEB), Depto de Ecologia, Pontificia Univ., Cato´lica de Chile, Alameda 340 C.P. 6513677, Santiago, Chile. A. Guisan, Fac. of Biologyand Medicine, Dept of Ecology & Evolution, Univ. of Lausanne, Baˆtiment Biophore, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. P. Vittoz, Fac. ofBiology and Medicine, Dept of Ecology & Evolution, Univ. of Lausanne, Baˆtiment Biophore, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland and Fac. ofGeosciences and Environment, Univ. of Lausanne, Baˆtiment Biophore, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. T. Wohlgemuth and N. E.Zimmermann, Swiss Federal Research Inst. for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zu¨rcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf,Switzerland. S. Dullinger, Vienna Inst. for Nature Conservation and Analyses, Giessergasse 6/7, AT-1090 Vienna, Austria, and Fac. Centrefor Biodiversity, Dept of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape Ecology, Univ. of Vienna, Rennweg 14, AT-1030 Vienna, Austria. H. Pauli, Inst. of Mountain Research: Man and the Environment (IGF) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, c/o Fac. Centre for Biodiversity,Dept of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape Ecology, Univ. of Vienna, Rennweg 14, AT-1030 Vienna, Austria. W. Willner,Vienna Inst. for Nature Conservation and Analyses, Giessergasse 6/7, AT-1090 Vienna, Austria. J.-C. Svenning, The Ecoinformatics &Biodiversity Group, Dept of Biological Sciences, Aarhus Univ., Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/9c1adcce6bb5947e6840c13e7b5bf3bc03096147

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Citations in the corpus

Predicting range shifts of Asian elephants under global change (2019, background): “K E Y W O R D S Asian elephant, climate change, habitat loss, range shift, seasonality, South Asia, species distribution modelling, water balance change indirectly due to alterations in surface energy budgets and thus temperatures at the local scale (Lenoir et al., 2010; Vanderwal et al., 2013).”
Connectivity for species on the move: supporting climate‐driven range shifts (2019, background): “However, the finer- scaled climatic factors to which species respond (eg water balance) may result in localized shifts that are opposite to these prevailing, broad- scale patterns (Lenoir et al. 2010; Crimmins et al. 2011).”
High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections (2023, background): “…in the classification such as local geography, soil type, increased CO 2 concentrations, nutrient availability, wildfires, invasive species disruptions, human interventions (including deforestation, urbanization, and agriculture), as well as the inherent transition times of ecosystems 36–38 .”
Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being (2017, positive): “For example, precipitation changes or interspecific interactions can cause downward elevation shifts as climate warms (20).”
Non-native and native organisms moving into high elevation and high latitude ecosystems in an era of climate change: new challenges for ecology and conservation (2016, background): “For instance, terrestrial native organisms are not only shifting their ranges towards higher latitudes or elevations as is usually reported, but they are also shifting ranges in unexpected directions (e.g. toward the equator or downward; e.g. Lenoir et al. 2010).”
Shifts in plant distributions in response to climate warming in a biodiversity hotspot, the Hengduan Mountains (2018, background): “…as movements in east–west directions across longitudes (Vanderwal et al., 2013), or shifts towards tropical latitudes (Pinsky, Worm, Fogarty, Sarmiento, & Levin, 2013; Vanderwal et al., 2013) or lower elevations (Crimmins, Dobrowski, Greenberg, Abatzoglou, & Mynsberge, 2011; Lenoir et al., 2010).”
Expanding, shifting and shrinking: The impact of global warming on species’ elevational distributions (2018, background): “Instead, there is extreme variation in the rate at which species are shifting their distributions associated with recent warming (Angert et al., 2011; Lenoir et al., 2010).”
Causes of warm‐edge range limits: systematic review, proximate factors and implications for climate change (2014, background): “…geographical ranges seemingly in response to recent climate change, and these shifts are typically upward in elevation and poleward in lati- tude (e.g. Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Hickling et al., 2005; Parmesan, 2006; Anderson et al., 2009; Thomas, 2010; Chen et al., 2011; but see Lenoir et al., 2010).”
Extreme climatic events and vegetation: the role of stabilizing processes (2012, background): “…of vegetation shift are arising even in the absence of extreme climatic episodes, such as downslope range displacement in altitudinal gradients (Lenoir et al., 2010), or species persistence promoted by the stability of population growth at the southern edge of the range (Doak & Morris, 2010).”