Why Is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable?

By G. Roe, M. Baker. Science, 2007

653 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Global and Planetary Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/9a0c81f6887db897000dbce576b139a486f62c77

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In Global and Planetary Change

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Citations in the corpus

A Simple Formula for the Social Cost of Carbon (2013, neutral): “…BLOCKIN climate BLOCKIN BLOCKIN sciences BLOCKIN BLOCKIN will BLOCKIN BLOCKIN improve BLOCKIN BLOCKIN the BLOCKIN BLOCKIN precision BLOCKIN BLOCKIN of BLOCKIN BLOCKIN estimates BLOCKIN BLOCKIN for BLOCKIN BLOCKIN climate sensitivity and damages over time, but very slowly (Roe & Baker, 2007).”
Climate Risks and Carbon Prices: Revising the Social Cost of Carbon (2012, background): “This crucial parameter, which measures the pace of global warming, remains uncertain, and there are reasons to believe that significant uncertainty about climate sensitivity is inescapable (Roe and Baker 2007).”
The Influence of the Specification of Climate Change Damages on the Social Cost of Carbon (2012, background): “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report notes that “on balance, the current generation of aggregate estimates in the literature is more likely than not to understate the actual costs of climate change” (Schneider et al., 2007).”
An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress (2010, background): “5 °C of warming at equilibrium, but this is poorly constrained on the high side (2, 3) and according to one new estimate has a 5% chance of exceeding 7.”
The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions (2009, background): “…case of model uncertainty, it is well known that the uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity has reduced little since the first IPCC assessment report in 1990 (Räisänen 2007), and Roe and Baker (2007) recently argued that there are fundamental reasons why so little progress has been made.”
What caused Earths temperature variations during the last 800,000 years? Data-based evidences on radiative forcing and constraints on climate sensitivity (2009, background): “This is rather fundamental and unlikely to disappear soon, as a better constraint on the forcing will be difficult to obtain (but see discussion on climate sensitivity in Roe and Baker (2007); Baker and Roe (2009); Hannart et al., 2009; Tanaka et al. (2009)).”
Feedbacks, Timescales, and Seeing Red (2009, background): “This shape for the envelope of uncertainty of climate sensitivity has been found in many studies (e.g., Gregory et al. 2002, Forest et al. 2002, Stainforth et al. 2005, Roe & Baker 2007) and can be understood as a direct consequence of Equation 11.”
Developing a Social Cost of Carbon for US Regulatory Analysis: A Methodology and Interpretation (2013, methodology): “Uncertainties concerning climate sensitivity Uncertainties concerning this important parameter have received substantial attention in the peer-reviewed literature (see, e.g., Roe and Baker 2007).”
Climate policy under uncertainty: a case for solar geoengineering (2013, positive): “3 We choose this distribution of λ̃ to capture the idea of low probability-high impact events that are characteristic of fat-tail distributions commonly associated to climate sensitivity (Roe and Baker 2007; Weitzman 2009).”
The social cost of carbon in U.S. regulatory impact analyses: an introduction and critique (2012, methodology): “Sterner and Person (2008) provide an interesting and related argument: as access to environmental goods and services is reduced by climate damages, their relative value will increase substantially so that the “public bads” from climate change, and therefore the SCC, will be much higher.”