How long will it take? Conceptualizing the temporal dynamics of energy transitions

By Benjamin Sovacool. 2016

951 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Transitioning away from our current global energy system is of paramount importance. The speed at which a transition can take place—its timing, or temporal dynamics—is a critical element of consideration. This study therefore investigates the issue of time in global and national energy transitions by asking: What does the mainstream academic literature suggest about the time scale of energy transitions? Additionally, what does some of the more recent empirical data related to transitions say, or challenge, about conventional views? In answering these questions, the article presents a “mainstream” view of energy transitions as long, protracted affairs, often taking decades to centuries to occur. However, the article then offers some empirical evidence that the predominant view of timing may not always be supported by the evidence. With this in mind, the final part of the article argues for more transparent conceptions and definitions of energy transitions, and it asks for analysis that recognizes the causal complexity underlying them.

Subfields: Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Global and Planetary Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/92fa8eb59cde041f329194956d4dcfa45f533eb4

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In Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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Citations in the corpus

The Material Stock–Flow–Service Nexus: A New Approach for Tackling the Decoupling Conundrum (2017, neutral): “A “Great Transformation” [20,163] involves not only technological innovations, but also major shifts in resource production and consumption [164] and socioeconomic metabolism [9,19] at various spatial and temporal scales.”
The mineral foundation of the energy transition (2018, background): “…the energy transition is beginning to become clear, its pace and contours remain elusive (e.g., IEA, 2017a,b; BNEF, 2017; Araújo, 2014; Smil, 2010; Sovacool, 2016; Grubler, 2012).1 Still, the tremendous growth in some specific technologies such as electric vehicles (EV), storage batteries, and…”
Sustainability Transitions Research: Transforming Science and Practice for Societal Change (2017, background): “As with in the energy domain, many societal sectors have historically experienced such major shifts and are likely to do so again in the future (1, 2).”
The co-evolution of policy mixes and socio-technical systems: Towards a conceptual framework of policy mix feedback in sustainability transitions (2019, background): “Yet, some more recent transitions have been shown to occur quicker (Sovacool, 2016) and there is a live dis-”
The pace of governed energy transitions: Agency, international dynamics and the global Paris agreement accelerating decarbonisation processes? (2016, background): “Sovacool (2016) and Smil (this issue) both are in agreement that under certain circumstances national energy transitions can be fairly rapid, but Smil argues that global energy transitions necessarily are prolonged and multidecadal processes.”
Ten essentials for action-oriented and second order energy transitions, transformations and climate change research (2018, background): “Thus, while there is extensive debate about whether transformative change can be achieved sufficiently quickly to mitigate and adapt to climate change [19,20], the challenge of finding ways to create the necessary shifts in the systems, structures, assumptions and worldviews underpinning climate cha”
Historical energy transitions: Speed, prices and system transformation ☆ (2016, background): “…by unfolding events, and partly stimulated by the special issue in this journal, research output on using experiences from past energy transitions to inform the present and future policies has accelerated (Sarrica et al. 2016, Sovacool 2016, Chabrol 2016, Andrews-Speed 2016, Pearson 2016).”
Policy mixes for incumbency: Exploring the destructive recreation of renewable energy, shale gas ‘fracking,’ and nuclear power in the United Kingdom (2017, positive): “Furthermore, academic studies of ‘sustainability transitions’ (Markard et al. 2012) have increased attention to the means by which transitions might be speeded up in order address growing policy urgency (Kern & Rogge 2016; Sovacool 2016; Bromley 2016; Fouquet 2016).”
Understanding the timing of energy demand through time use data: Time of the day dependence of social practices (2017, neutral): “This relates to the general argument that issues of timing in energy and the social sciences are seldom supported by evidence [5].”
Apples, oranges, and consistent comparisons of the temporal dynamics of energy transitions (2016, background): “…32 years compared to a range of between 47 to 69 years of the transition examples of western European economies in the 20th century shown in Table 2 of Sovacool (2016). flows are used often depends on data availability rather than theoretical considerations, for which stock variables would be…”