Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030

By S. Pachauri, Bas J. van Ruijven, Y. Nagai, Keywan Riahi, D. V. van Vuuren, A. Brew-Hammond, Nebojsa Nakicenovic. 2013

180 citations recorded by the source corpus.

A lack of access to modern energy impacts health and welfare and impedes development for billions of people. Growing concern about these impacts has mobilized the international community to set new targets for universal modern energy access. However, analyses exploring pathways to achieve these targets and quantifying the potential costs and benefits are limited. Here, we use two modelling frameworks to analyse investments and consequences of achieving total rural electrification and universal access to clean-combusting cooking fuels and stoves by 2030. Our analysis indicates that these targets can be achieved with additional investment of US$200565–86 billion per year until 2030 combined with dedicated policies. Only a combination of policies that lowers costs for modern cooking fuels and stoves, along with more rapid electrification, can enable the realization of these goals. Our results demonstrate the critical importance of accounting for varying demands and affordability across heterogeneous household groups in both analysis and policy setting. While the investments required are significant, improved access to modern cooking fuels alone can avert between 0.6 and 1.8 million premature deaths annually in 2030 and enhance wellbeing substantially.

Subfields: Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Pollution, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/8fe6a358dd2c4e3286e16b2a662890657964d6f6

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Citations in the corpus

Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots (2018, methodology): “scenarios for each SSP on a regional basis [47, 48], then downscaled using projected SSP”
Access to electricity in the World Energy Council's global energy scenarios: An outlook for developing regions until 2030 (2016, methodology): “[54] and [91] the minimum annual electricity consumption threshold is set to 420 kWh per household gaining electricity access, which is enough to run some small appliances.”
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives (2017, unknown): “Similarly, research into energy access, air pollution and energy security can greatly bene ﬁ t from energy sector SSPs (Jewell et al., 2014; Pachauri et al., 2013).”
Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research (2014, methodology): “Some elements, such as infrastructure, are available from IAM models (see e.g. Pachauri et al. 2013; Sassi et al. 2010).”
Feasible mitigation actions in developing countries (2014, background): “Achieving total rural electrification and universal access to clean-combusting cooking fuels and stoves 339 will require substantial additional energy system investments, estimated to amount to about USD bln 340 65-86 per year.(78) Arguably, most developing nations will not be able to meet these fin”
Better air for better health: Forging synergies in policies for energy access, climate change and air pollution (2013, methodology): “We explicitly model future household energy access and use by accounting for heterogeneous household energy choices and affordability constraints for rural and urban populations spanning the entire income distribution based on (Pachauri et al., 2013).”
Investment Needs to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals Understanding the Billions and Trillions (2015, methodology): “For universal access to modern energy services, results from Pachauri et al. (2013) are rebased from $2005 to $2013. For investment needs in large-scale energy infrastructure, estimates from the World Bank (2013) are adjusted to include expenditure for operation and maintenance using data provided b”
Integrating Global Climate Change Mitigation Goals with Other Sustainability Objectives: A Synthesis (2015, unknown): “that ( is completely replaced by fossil fuels (100, 101).”
Modeling sustainable long-term electricity supply-demand in Africa (2017, background): “…IMAGEREMG and MESSAGEAccess, and is focused only on individual universal access to electricity, ignoring the other sectors which together account for a large share of total electricity demand in Africa (Riahi et al. 2011; Pachauri et al. 2012; Chakravarty and Tavoni 2013; Pachauri et al. 2013).”
Policy trade-offs between climate mitigation and clean cook-stove access in South Asia (2016, methodology): “We use methods developed for the GEA to downscale the aggregate rural and urban population and GDP projections to the four population subgroups, as described in Pachauri et al (2013)7.”
Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models (2015, background): “These include (1) the extent and date of implementation of climate and energy policies, (2) the stringency of the regional emission pledges, (3) the long-term climate objective, and (4) the way the climate policy burden is shared across regions (see Supplementary Table S2 for the scenario descriptio”
Pathways to achieve a set of ambitious global sustainability objectives by 2050: Explorations using the IMAGE integrated assessment model (2015, unknown): “The total cost of achieving universal accessto modernenergy sources is estimated ataroundUSD 70 billion, for the 2010 – 2030 period (Pachauri et al., 2013).”