Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts
By L. Jonung, Martin Larch. 2006
269 citations recorded by the source corpus.
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/8eb86f425b985e563b4568f6b446d3fdc94fdbe2
How researchers see this paper
The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.
- Fotios Petropoulos
- Rob J Hyndman
- Nikolaos Kourentzes
- Konstantinos Nikolopoulos
- Evangelos Spiliotis
- Spyros Makridakis
- Vassilios Assimakopoulos
- Christoph Bergmeir
Citations in the corpus
- Fiscal Policy in Real Time (2012, unknown): “Jonung and Larch (2004) ), data released by national statistical agencies are often affected by a “political bias” inducing overly optimistic forecasts of GDP growth and the state of public finances.”
- A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile (2011, background): “The fact that the United Kingdom does not show significant overoptimism (Jonung and Larch, 2006) is consistent with the possibility that the bias is related to the common currency, given that the country has not sought entrance into the euro area.”
- Forecasting: theory and practice (2020, methodology): “For example, Krüger and Givoni (2004) use a linear regression approach to predict inside temperatures in 3 houses in Brazil and optimally select the thermal systems that should be used based on their particularities, and Ruano et al.”
- Fiscal Policy: Institutions versus Rules (2005, unknown): “As described by Kydland and Prescott (1977), and documented by the high rates of inflation observed in the 1980s, monetary policy came to be seen as hostage to policymakers’ temptation to inflate when faced with difficulties such as high unemployment or public indebtedness.”
- Over-Optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and its Implications (2011, unknown): “Jonung and Larch (2006) find a clear tendency for EU governments, when making budget plans, to overestimate the economic growth rate.”
- The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: An empirical assessment (2011, background): “Analysing variables net of cyclical factors, Jonung and Larch (2006) provide evidence that a similar behaviour has indeed prevailed in some of the largest EU countries.”