Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions

By Charles F. Manski. 2013

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Citations in the corpus

How Do Right-to-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping with Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions (2015, unknown): “In this setting, researchers report findings with “incredible certitude” rather than expressing due caution (Manski, 2013).”
Generalizing Experimental Findings (2015, unknown): “, 2015) and social policy making (Manski, 2013).”
Understanding and misunderstanding randomized controlled trials (2016, unknown): “Infectious diseases are a well-known example, where immunization programs affect the dynamics of disease transmission through herd immunity (see Fine and Clarkson (1986) and Manski (2013, 52)).”
Assessing the regulatory challenges of emerging disruptive technologies (2021, unknown): “Even when causal relationships and future scenarios are relatively well known, there is always some uncertainty with respect to policy predictions due to data and statistical limitations (Morgan & Henrion 1990; Manski 2013).”
Three principles of data science: predictability, computability, and stability (PCS) (2018, background): “Econometric models with partial identification (see the book (16) and references therein) and fundamental theoretical results in statistics, such as the central limit theorem (CLT), can also be viewed as stability considerations.”
Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics: An Appraisal Fifty Years after Morgenstern (2014, unknown): “~ Reporting official statistics as point estimates without adequate attention to error manifests a common tendency of policy analysts to project incredible certitude (Manski, 2011, 2013).”
Two sides of the same coin: consequential life cycle assessment based on the attributional framework (2016, background): “To understand the consequences of a decision entails estimating what would happenwith and without the decision in question (Manski, 2013).”