Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence

By J. Merilä, A. Hendry. Evolutionary Applications, 2014

1,183 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Many studies have recorded phenotypic changes in natural populations and attributed them to climate change. However, controversy and uncertainty has arisen around three levels of inference in such studies. First, it has proven difficult to conclusively distinguish whether phenotypic changes are genetically based or the result of phenotypic plasticity. Second, whether or not the change is adaptive is usually assumed rather than tested. Third, inferences that climate change is the specific causal agent have rarely involved the testing – and exclusion – of other potential drivers. We here review the various ways in which the above inferences have been attempted, and evaluate the strength of support that each approach can provide. This methodological assessment sets the stage for 11 accompanying review articles that attempt comprehensive syntheses of what is currently known – and not known – about responses to climate change in a variety of taxa and in theory. Summarizing and relying on the results of these reviews, we arrive at the conclusion that evidence for genetic adaptation to climate change has been found in some systems, but is still relatively scarce. Most importantly, it is clear that more studies are needed – and these must employ better inferential methods – before general conclusions can be drawn. Overall, we hope that the present paper and special issue provide inspiration for future research and guidelines on best practices for its execution.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Genetics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/80248b34c85d0065852d77849056bc0c17eec638

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Citations in the corpus

Climate change vulnerability assessment of species (2018, background): “Plasticity can have a large impact on the adaptive potential of populations, particularly through phenological changes that adjust the timing of activity and reproduction of organisms (Merilä & Hendry, 2014).”
Analysing eco‐evolutionary dynamics—The challenging complexity of the real world (2019, neutral): “…al., 2008), papers emphasizing applications for conservation and global change (Alberti, 2015; De Meester, Doorslaer, Geerts, Orsini, & Stoks, 2011; Merilä & Hendry, 2014; Stockwell, Hendry, & Kinnison, 2003; Urban, De Meester, Vellend, Stoks, & Vanoverbeke, 2012), theoretical studies (Lion, 2018;…”
How climate change affects the seasonal ecology of insect parasitoids (2020, background): “Disentangling the relative effects of genetic changes and plasticity on shifts in phenology has been identified as one of the greatest challenges in evolutionary research on organism responses to climate change (Merilä & Hendry, 2014; Schilthuizen & Kellermann, 2014).”