Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion

By Alan J. Auerbach, Y. Gorodnichenko. 2011

984 citations recorded by the source corpus.

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/7d28bb4ee7d7dd5481d69e686fa3a91f1fd58458

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In Economics and Econometrics

Citations in the corpus

Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation (2016, methodology): “Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012) use a smooth transition vector autoregression model and find evidence of larger multipliers in recessions.”
Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data (2013, neutral): “+ −−1 −1 = + −−1 −1 · −1 −1 ≈ (ln + − ln −1) · −1 −1  (2)”
Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy (2012, positive): “Our results are also mostly in line with the analyses that control for the state of the cycle (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012a) and Batini, Callegari, and Melina (2012)).”
Bayesian nonparametric vector autoregressive models (2018, neutral): “(2001), Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2011), Baum and Koester (2011), and Gambacorta et al. (2014) find that the effect of a shock is non-linear, and depends on the phase of the business cycle, and the timing and size of the shock. Luckily, the model in (1) is very versatile, and in the past couple of”
Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data (2014, neutral): “0022-3808/2018/12602-0005$10.00 850 government spending multipliers 851 suggest that increases in government purchases do not stimulate private activity and that fiscal consolidations based on reducing government purchases are unlikely to do much harm to the private sector.”
Fiscal Stimulus and Fiscal Sustainability (2017, methodology): “In light of these limitations, we follow our previous work (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko, 2013) and use professional forecasts to purge predictable variation from the innovations to government spending.”
Exchange Rate Regimes and Fiscal Multipliers (2013, methodology): “7As discussed in detail by Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012b), these forecasts have been shown to perform quite well.”
Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: What Role in Prevention and Recovery? (2014, neutral): “13 The extant empirical evidence on fiscal policy typically reaches opposite conclusions (eg, IMF (2012), Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2013)).”
Fiscal consolidation with tax evasion and corruption (2014, background): “The law of motion of informal employment, nt , is given by: nt+1 = (1 )nt +mt (3)”
Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan (2018, positive): “2Using post-WWII data in the United States, Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012a) provide evidence that the multiplier is significantly larger in recession than in expansion.”
Ten Years After the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research? (2019, positive): “Various other studies have found high multipliers during recessions (for example, Auerbach and Gorodnichenko 2013; Fazzari, Morley, and Panovski 2015; Caggiano, Castelnuovo, Colombo, and Nodari 2015).”