Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following year’s El Niño

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Improved ensemble-mean forecasting of ENSO events by a zero-mean stochastic error model of an intermediate coupled model (2016, background): “Indian Ocean Dipole mode The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD; Saji et al. 1999) has been suggested by Izumo et al. (2010) to modulate the strength of Walker circulation in autumn, and a sudden collapse of anomalous zonal winds induced by the quick demise of IOD is evident over the Pacific Ocean in winter,…”
What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting? (2012, background): “In addition to global temperature (Smith et al 2007) initialization improves predictions of surface temperature mainly in the north Atlantic and Pacific ocean (Keenlyside et al 2008, Pohlmann et al 2009, Mochizuki et al 2009, Smith et al 2010), but evidence for improved predictions over land is less”
Potential of equatorial Atlantic variability to enhance El Niño prediction (2012, background): “Lastly, accounting for other remote influences may also enhance ENSO skill [e.g., Vimont et al., 2001; Izumo et al., 2010; Luo et al., 2010; Terray, 2011; Frauen and Dommenget, 2012], and deserves further investigation.”