Modeling the epidemic of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease demonstrates an exponential increase in burden of disease

By C. Estes, H. Razavi, R. Loomba, Z. Younossi, A. Sanyal. Hepatology, 2017

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Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are highly prevalent in the United States, where they are a growing cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and increasingly an indicator for liver transplantation. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD disease progression. Incidence of NAFLD was based on historical and projected changes in adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Assumptions were derived from published literature where available and validated using national surveillance data for incidence of NAFLD‐related HCC. Projected changes in NAFLD‐related cirrhosis, advanced liver disease, and liver‐related mortality were quantified through 2030. Prevalent NAFLD cases are forecasted to increase 21%, from 83.1 million (2015) to 100.9 million (2030), while prevalent NASH cases will increase 63% from 16.52 million to 27.00 million cases. Overall NAFLD prevalence among the adult population (aged ≥15 years) is projected at 33.5% in 2030, and the median age of the NAFLD population will increase from 50 to 55 years during 2015‐2030. In 2015, approximately 20% of NAFLD cases were classified as NASH, increasing to 27% by 2030, a reflection of both disease progression and an aging population. Incidence of decompensated cirrhosis will increase 168% to 105,430 cases by 2030, while incidence of HCC will increase by 137% to 12,240 cases. Liver deaths will increase 178% to an estimated 78,300 deaths in 2030. During 2015‐2030, there are projected to be nearly 800,000 excess liver deaths. Conclusion: With continued high rates of adult obesity and DM along with an aging population, NAFLD‐related liver disease and mortality will increase in the United States. Strategies to slow the growth of NAFLD cases and therapeutic options are necessary to mitigate disease burden. (Hepatology 2018;67:123‐133).

Subfields: Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Epidemiology, Hepatology

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/64b0dd1a4604f280f6156a7e658eeb58f46f3923

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In Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism

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Citations in the corpus

Global incidence and prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (2022, background): “5% in 2030.(61) A separate modeling study from Canada projected that NAFLD individuals would rise by 20% from an estimated 7.”
The global epidemiology of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH): a systematic review (2023, result): “Nonetheless, these reported NAFLD incidence rates are in line with other incidence reports and is important information especially when forecasting the future burden of disease.[29,30,33] Our data showed that pooled mortality rate for NAFLD was 12.”
Liver Fibrosis: Mechanistic Concepts and Therapeutic Perspectives (2020, background): “NAFLD represents the fastest growing etiology of chronic liver disease and currently affects 15-30% of the global adult population [210] with expected further exponential increase within the next years [211].”
Global Perspectives on Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (2019, background): “In fact, given the increasing global epidemic of obesity and T2DM, a recent model has estimated a 178% increase in liver deaths related to NASH by 2030.(13) In addition to liver-related mortality and morbidity, NAFLD and NASH are associated with several extrahepatic manifestations, adding to the bur”