How accurate are population models? Lessons from landscape-scale tests in a fragmented system

By David B. Lindenmayer, Hugh P. Possingham, R. Lacy, M. McCarthy, M. Pope. 2002

113 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Ecology, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/5cbede3683dacf87ad86d981dfc6ff3c3987197e

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In Ecology

In Nature and Landscape Conservation

Citations in the corpus

Sex and sociality in a disconnected world: A review of the impacts of habitat fragmentation on animal social interactions (2007, background): “Lindenmayer et al. (2003) suggested that a consistent inability to accurately model and predict fragmented habitat population dynamics was at least partly attributable to the influence of landscape structure on life-history attributes.”
Fire frequency matters more than fire size: Testing the pyrodiversity-biodiversity paradigm for at-risk small mammals in an Australian tropical savanna (2015, background): “However, the approach has often been criticised for lack of absolute predictive accuracy associated with dealing with complex ecological systems projected over long time intervals (Lindenmayer et al., 2003) because of poor parameter estimation and limited data (White, 2000).”
Causes and consequences of animal dispersal strategies: relating individual behaviour to spatial dynamics (2005, background): “Dispersal processes, such as conspecific attraction, could have explained the poor fit for some animals (Lindenmayer et al., 2003).”
Fire management for biodiversity conservation: Key research questions and our capacity to answer them (2010, unknown): “Although predictions from simulation modelling can be adequate for long-term data sets of single populations with simple population dynamics, predictions of extinction probabilities using simulation models are notoriously inaccurate in more complex situations (Lindenmayer et al., 2003; Ludwig, 1999)”
Population Viability Analysis (2022, background): “Further, while the actual predictions of PVA can be uncertain [19, 26], changes in the level of threat faced by a species can be reliable [5].”
Landscape moderation of biodiversity patterns and processes ‐ eight hypotheses (2012, background): “…cover types in the landscape will resemble in reality more Levins’ classical metapopulation model with its assumption of landscapes consisting of only habitat versus non-habitat (Levins, 1969; Lindenmayer et al., 2003; Tscharntke & Brandl, 2004; Lonsdorf et al., 2009; Perfecto & Vandermeer, 2010).”
Species Survival in Fragmented Landscapes: Where are We Now? (2004, methodology): “…to fragmentation studies, such as population viability analysis, as practical tools for conservation management are not without their critics and have been the subject of lively debate in the recent literature (e.g., Caughley 1994; Akçakaya and Burgman 1995; Harcourt 1995; Lindenmayer et al. 2003).”
From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli’s Eagle in western Europe (2013, methodology): “This gap in our knowledge means that only rarely in population viability assessments has much attention been paid to dispersal (but see McCarthy et al. 2000, Lindenmayer et al. 2003, Schtickzelle et al. 2005, Bonnot et al. 2011).”
Information needs for assessing critical habitat of freshwater fish (2006, background): “…Reed et al. 2002), but it remains a useful quantitative tool for setting recovery targets and exploring how different management scenarios affect extinction risk (Brook et al. 2000; Haight et al. 2002), provided the results are interpreted with caution (Brook et al. 2002; Lindenmayer et al. 2003).”