The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts
By A. Syntetos, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, John E. Boylan, Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin. 2009
130 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Empirical research suggests that quantitatively derived forecasts are very frequently judgementally adjusted. Nevertheless, little work has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these judgemental adjustments in a practical demand/sales context. In addition, the relevant analysis does not distinguish between slow and fast moving items. Currently, there are neither conceptual developments nor empirical evidence on the issue of integrating judgements and statistical forecasts for slow/intermittent demand items. Moreover, no results have ever been reported on the stock control implications of these human judgements. Our work analyses monthly intermittent demand forecasts for the UK branch of a major international pharmaceutical company. The company relies upon a commercially available statistical forecasting system to produce forecasts that are subsequently judgementally adjusted based on marketing intelligence gathered by the company forecasters. The benefits of the intervention are evaluated by comparing the actual sales to system and final forecasts using both forecast accuracy and inventory control (accuracy implication) metrics. Our study allows insights to be gained on potential improvements to intermittent demand forecasting processes and, subsequently, the design effectiveness of forecasting support systems.
Subfields: Management Science and Operations Research, Statistics and Probability
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/5add1c71ccf090a309fbc49ab652ec47cb18d527
How researchers see this paper
The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.
In Management Science and Operations Research
- Xun Wang
- Stephen M. Disney
- Fotios Petropoulos
- Vassilios Assimakopoulos
- Evangelos Spiliotis
- Konstantinos Nikolopoulos
- Rob J Hyndman
- Spyros Makridakis
In Statistics and Probability
Citations in the corpus
- The inventory performance of forecasting methods: Evidence from the M3 competition data (2019, background): “Syntetos et al. (2009) showed that the benefits of judgmental interventions on forecast accuracy are also evident in terms of stock control performance (stock and ser-3 vice levels).”