Endogenous Overconfidence in Managerial Forecasts

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CEO Overconfidence and Stock Price Crash Risk (2016, unknown): “2012; Malmendier and Tate 2008; Roll 1986), more optimistic earnings forecasts (Hilary and Hsu 2011; Hribar and Yang 2014), a higher incidence of accounting fraud and lower accounting conservatism (Ahmed and Duellman 2013; Schrand and Zechman 2012), a higher level of shortterm debt (Graham et al.”
The Bright Side of Managerial Over-Optimism (2016, methodology): “3 A small number of recent studies investigate the possibility that overconfidence is a dynamic phenomenon (e.g., Hilary and Menzly, 2006; Hilary and Hsu, 2011).”
CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting (2016, unknown): “This leads to our second hypothesis, in alternative form: 8 In contrast to the studies mentioned above that treat overconfidence as a stable trait, Hilary and Hsu (2011) examine the effects of dynamic overconfidence from self-attribution.”
Mapping the field of behavioural biases: a literature review using bibliometric analysis (2021, background): “Hilary and Hsu (2011) observed that the managers tend to exhibit overconfidence in dynamic nature which is high if earlier predictions were correct and even result in less concrete predictions in the near future.”