FALSE POSITIVE PROBABILITIES FOR ALL KEPLER OBJECTS OF INTEREST: 1284 NEWLY VALIDATED PLANETS AND 428 LIKELY FALSE POSITIVES

By Timothy Morton, S. Bryson, Jeff Coughlin, J. Rowe, Ganesh Ravichandran, E. Petigura, M. Haas, N. Batalha. 2016

283 citations recorded by the source corpus.

We present astrophysical false positive probability calculations for every Kepler Object of Interest (KOI)—the first large-scale demonstration of a fully automated transiting planet validation procedure. Out of 7056 KOIs, we determine that 1935 have probabilities <1% of being astrophysical false positives, and thus may be considered validated planets. Of these, 1284 have not yet been validated or confirmed by other methods. In addition, we identify 428 KOIs that are likely to be false positives, but have not yet been identified as such, though some of these may be a result of unidentified transit timing variations. A side product of these calculations is full stellar property posterior samplings for every host star, modeled as single, binary, and triple systems. These calculations use vespa, a publicly available Python package that is able to be easily applied to any transiting exoplanet candidate.

Subfields: Astronomy and Astrophysics, Instrumentation, Statistical and Nonlinear Physics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/58097511a28b12dc6a6b2627f9151da9fa10edca

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Citations in the corpus

The California-Kepler Survey. III. A Gap in the Radius Distribution of Small Planets (2017, methodology): “The Paper I false positive designations were determined using the false positive probabilities calculated by Morton & Johnson (2011); Morton (2012); Morton et al. (2016), the Kepler team’s designation available on the NASA Exoplanet Archive, and a search for secondary lines in the HIRES spectra…”
The Evaporation Valley in the Kepler Planets (2017, background): “Specifically, the most common type of exoplanets are smaller than Neptune (.4 R⊕, e.g., Youdin 2011; Howard et al. 2012; Batalha et al. 2013; Petigura et al. 2013; Burke et al. 2014; Morton et al. 2016) and have masses of a few to tens of Earth masses.”
About 30% of Sun-like Stars Have Kepler-like Planetary Systems: A Study of Their Intrinsic Architecture (2018, background): “As Morton et al. (2016) pointed out, their FPPs for multi-tranet systems could have been inflated by the effect of unidentified TTVs.”
An asteroseismic view of the radius valley: stripped cores, not born rocky (2017, background): “Most of the planets have been confirmed or validated, while 17 are unconfirmed planet candidates that are likely to be bona fide planets (Morton et al. 2016; Van Eylen et al. 2017).”
Identifying Exoplanets with Deep Learning: A Five-planet Resonant Chain around Kepler-80 and an Eighth Planet around Kepler-90 (2017, methodology): “This system hosts a sub-Earthsized validated planet in a 4.3 day orbit (Morton et al. 2016) and a super-Earth-sized planet candidate in a 7 day orbit.”
Atmospheric Escape and the Evolution of Close-In Exoplanets (2018, background): “However, due to the preponderance of false-positives in the Kepler data at short periods (e.g. Morton et al. 2016), the “cleanliness” of the desert in the radius-period space was not confirmed until Lundkvist et al. (2016) used a sample of exoplanets validated with asteroseismology.”
THE KEPLER FOLLOW-UP OBSERVATION PROGRAM. I. A CATALOG OF COMPANIONS TO KEPLER STARS FROM HIGH-RESOLUTION IMAGING (2016, background): “…will not be confirmed as planets, but instead as brown dwarfs and eclipsing binaries (Santerne et al. 2016 determined a false-positive rate of 55% for giant planets with periods < 400 d; Morton et al. 2016 found a mean false positive probability of 84% for planet candidates with radii > 15 R⊕).”
Exoplanet Biosignatures: A Review of Remotely Detectable Signs of Life (2017, background): “tudies and the detailed characterization of exoplanet atmospheresandsurfaces.Transitandradialvelocitysurveyshave conﬁrmed the existence of thousands of exoplanets (Akeson et al., 2013; Batalha, 2014; Morton et al., 2016) with well overadozenlocatedwithinthecircumstellar habitablezones (HZs)oftheirho”
SOAR TESS Survey. I. Sculpting of TESS Planetary Systems by Stellar Companions (2019, background): “The discoveries of companions corrected the radius estimates for 814 planet candidates (Ziegler et al. 2018b), contributed to the validation of over 1000 Kepler planets (Morton et al. 2016), and informed future observations with large-aperture telescopes.”
Revised Stellar Properties of Kepler Targets for the Q1-17 (DR25) Transit Detection Run (2016, background): “To date 4,706 planetcandidates have been identified, over 49 % of which have been confirmed or validated (Rowe et al. 2014; Morton et al. 2016) This large number of detections allowed statistical studies of planet occurrence rates (e.g. Howard et al. 2012; Fressin et al. 2013; Dressing &…”
Photoevaporation and high-eccentricity migration created the sub-Jovian desert (2018, background): “However, using statistical vetting of planet candidates Morton et al. (2016) removed many of the false positives.”
The California-Kepler Survey. I. High-resolution Spectroscopy of 1305 Stars Hosting Kepler Transiting Planets (2017, methodology): “In addition to planet catalogs produced by the Kepler team, detailed planet validation has been performed by Lissauer et al. (2012, 2014) on mulit-planet systems, and on large samples (1000’s) of KOIs by Mullally et al. (2015) and Morton et al. (2016).”
197 CANDIDATES AND 104 VALIDATED PLANETS IN K2's FIRST FIVE FIELDS (2016, background): “Data from Kepler’s initial four-year survey revealed over 4000 candidate exoplanets and many confirmed and validated planets35 (e.g., Coughlin et al. 2016; Morton et al. 2016).”