The effects of improved survival on fertility: A reassessment

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Projection of Populations by Level of Educational Attainment, Age and Sex for 120 Countries for 2005-2050 (2010, background): “A rapid mortality decline may imply that many will miscalculate the number of children who will survive to adulthood, and lead to higher fertility among those with less schooling (Cleland 2001; Heer 1983).”
The demographic transition revisited as a global process (2004, background): “In a recent article following notions originally set out by Kingsley Davis (1963), Cleland (2001) has argued persuasively that large mortality declines are both a necessary and a sufficient stimulus for fertility decline in historical contexts and in the developing world.”