Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Storms Using Coupled GCM Integrations

By F. Vitart, T. Stockdale. 2001

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Improving the Detection and Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (2002, background): “Dynamical forecasts of seasonal tropical storm activity are currently produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) based on coupled ocean–atmosphere models (Vitart and Stockdale 2001).”
The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2-LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations (2004, result): “Overall AM2–LM2’s simulation of tropical cyclones is inferior to that of some other models (Bengtsson et al. 1995; Vitart and Stockdale 2001).”
A Comparison of Dynamical and Statistical Predictions of Weekly Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere (2010, methodology): “Modeling studies (e.g., Vitart and Anderson 2001) have simulated the impact of local SSTs and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on model TCs, which explains the success of dynamical seasonal forecasts of TCs (Vitart and Stockdale 2001; Camargo et al. 2005; Vitart et al. 2007).”
Simulation of the Recent Multidecadal Increase of Atlantic Hurricane Activity Using an 18-km-Grid Regional Model (2007, background): “L. Anderson, and W. F. Stern, 1997: Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations.”