Prognostic value of an RNA expression signature derived from cell cycle proliferation genes for recurrence and death from prostate cancer: A retrospective study in two cohorts

By Jack Cuzick, G. Swanson, G. Fisher, A. Brothman, D. Berney, J. Reid, D. Mesher, V. Speights, E. Stankiewicz, C. Foster and 10 more. The Lancet Oncology, 2011

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SUMMARY Background Optimal management of clinically localized prostate cancer presents unique challenges because of its highly variable and often indolent natural history. To predict disease aggressiveness, clinicians combine clinical parameters to create prognostic models, but the accuracy of current models is very limited. There is significant clinical need for biomarkers that improve our ability to predict disease outcome. Methods Using quantitative RT-PCR on RNA from formalin fixed paraffin-embedded tumour samples, we measured the expression level of 31 genes involved in cell cycle progression (CCP genes), created a predefined score and evaluated its ability to predict disease outcome. The signature was tested in a retrospective cohort of 366 patients from the U.S. who had undergone radical prostatectomy, and in a retrospective cohort of 337 men with clinically localized prostate cancer diagnosed by a transurethral resection (TURP) in the UK and managed conservatively. Findings The cell cycle progression signature was a highly significant predictor of outcome in both cohorts. After prostatectomy the CCP score predicted biochemical recurrence in univariate (Hazard ratio (HR) for a one unit change in CCP (doubling) = 1.89; 95% CI (1.54, 2.31) χ2 = 34·0, 1df, p = 5·6 × 10−9) and multivariate analysis (HR = 1.74; 95% CI (1.39, 2.17) χ2 = 21·65, 1df, p = 3·3 ×10−6). The CCP score and PSA were the dominant variables in the best predictive model and were much more significant than any other clinical measure. In the TURP cohort, the CCP score was the dominant variable for predicting death from prostate cancer in both univariate (HR= 2.92; 95% CI (2.38, 3.57) χ2 = 92·7, 1df, p = 6.1 × 10−22) and multivariate analyses (χ2 = 42·2, p = 8·2 × 10−11), where it was much stronger than all other prognostic factors. In no case 4 was there significant evidence for heterogeneity in the hazard ratio for the CCP score across any clinical parameter. Interpretation The CCP score provides a substantial amount of independent information about the risk of recurrence after radical prostatectomy and the risk of death in conservatively managed prostate cancer diagnosed by TURP. Taken together, these studies provide strong evidence that the CCP score is a highly robust prognostic marker which, after additional validation, could have a central role in determining appropriate treatment for prostate cancer patients. Funding Study funded by Cancer Research UK, the Orchid Appeal, US National Institutes of Health (SPORE CA92629), and the Koch Foundation. Molecular testing performed at Myriad Genetics.

Subfields: Oncology, Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/509575e25d708a1ffc67adddb987e6ca76f92531

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In Oncology

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