Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it

By Reinette Biggs, Stephen R. Carpenter, William A. Brock. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009

734 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Environmental Engineering, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/4e16328e599e9d3169f40b6dbfbd039b4ca673a2

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Atmospheric Science

In Environmental Engineering

In Global and Planetary Change

Citations in the corpus

Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet (2015, background): “in order to steer away from an impending threshold before it is crossed (27, 28).”
Reconnecting to the Biosphere (2011, background): “Understanding the potential occurrence and consequences of ‘regime shifts’ in complex dynamical systems ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and climate are an area of active research (Biggs et al. 2009; Scheffer et al. 2009).”
A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) for synthesising high-frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models (2015, background): “1.566 55A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) Inland Waters (2014) 5, pp. 49-56 at a variety of spatial and temporal scales (e.g., Biggs et al. 2009).”
Research, part of a Special Feature on A Framework for Analyzing, Comparing, and Diagnosing Social-Ecological Systems Application of the SES Framework for Model-based Analysis of the Dynamics of Social-Ecological Systems (2014, background): “Recreational fisheries are a well-studied SES (e.g., Carpenter and Brock 2004, Biggs et al. 2009, Horan et al. 2011) in which social-ecological interactions between natural resources (fish), harvesters, and their institutions are strong and intimately coupled.”
Institutional and political leadership dimensions of cascading ecological crises (2011, background): “Moreover, gradual human induced disturbances of ecosystems often do not dramatically impact the generation of resources and ecosystem services until a critical threshold is exceeded (Scheffer et al. 2001; Biggs et al. 2008).”
The Impact of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity and Returns to Landowners: A Case Study in the State of Minnesota (2011, background): “Furthermore, ecological systems may have threshold effects that cause radical changes in provision of ecosystem services and such shifts may be difficult to predict prior to their occurrence (e.g., Biggs et al. 2009; Scheffer et al. 2001).”
Thresholds, tipping and turning points for sustainability under climate change (2013, background): “to predict [7,8] and may often occur without warning [9], yet experts allocate significant probability to their occurrence [10].”
Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change (2014, positive): “We define this process as a regime shift in land systems, in analogy with a regime shift in ecosystems (cf. Biggs et al., 2009; Scheffer et al., 2001).”
Resilience in ecology: Abstraction, distraction, or where the action is? (2014, background): “In another example, Blarquez and Carcaillet (2010) reconstructed fire histories and vegetation dynamics of subalpine ecosystems using charcoal and plant macro-remains present in 8000-year old lake sediments to estimate the fire frequency associated with a switch between ecosystem states dominated…”