Quantifying expert opinion in the UK water industry: an experimental study

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The ‘heuristics and biases’ bias in expert elicitation (2007, background): “…1996; Coles and Tawn, 1996; Al-Awadhi and Garthwaite, 1998; Craig et al., 1998; Kadane and Wolfson, 1998; Moreno and Girn, 1998; O’Hagan, 1998; Garthwaite and O’Hagan, 2000; Al-Awadhi and Garthwaite, 2001) which discuss prior or expert elicitation, published in statistical journals in the…”
Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions (2005, background): “Murphy and Winkler, 1974; Peterson et al, 1972), other empirical work has found that overconfidence is less if the 33 and 67 percentiles are assessed (Barclay and Peterson, 1973; Garthwaite and O’Hagan, 2000).”
Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis (2012, methodology): “Bisection methods can be used to obtain medians and upper and lower quartiles, with good results reported in [104]; other studies find that overconfidence is reduced if the 33% and 67% quantiles are used [58].”