Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America

By Richard Seager, M. Ting, Isaac M. Held, Y. Kushnir, Huei-Ping Huang, N. Harnik, N. Lau, Cuihua Li, Jennifer Velez. Science, 2007

1,857 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/436f3032eef5e5ea9f8ec4589dada30743ca231b

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In Atmospheric Science

1. Gang Chen
2. Jian Lu
3. D. Frierson
4. M. Previdi
5. B. Liepert
6. C. Gehring
7. M. Michaelian
8. E. Hogg

In Global and Planetary Change

1. Gang Chen
2. Jian Lu
3. D. Frierson
4. Regino Zamora
5. M. Previdi
6. C. Gehring
7. B. Liepert
8. J. Castro

Citations in the corpus

• Physiological Basis of Climate Change Impacts on North American Inland Fishes (2016, neutral): “Most freshwater fishes are stenohaline (Box 1) and are sensitive to changing environmental salinity (Peterson and Meador 1994) and as such are at risk from increased drought frequency and duration resulting from global climate change (Seager et al. 2007, 2013).”
• Annular modes and Hadley cell expansion under global warming (2007, positive): “…model runs forced with increasing concentrations of atmospheric GHG indicate a robust poleward expansion of the SDZ during the 21st century [Held and Soden, 2006; Lu et al., 2007], which contributes to increasing levels of aridity in regions such as the American Southwest [Seager et al., 2007].”
• Width of the Hadley cell in simple and comprehensive general circulation models (2007, positive): “The Hadley cell expansion has been pointed to as important in determining the predicted Southwestern North American drought [Seager et al., 2007] in global warming simulations.”
• A copula‐based nonstationary frequency analysis for the 2012–2015 drought in California (2016, neutral): “Regions of the WNA have undergone periodic decadal-scale severe droughts including the events during the 1930s Dust Bowl, and repeatedly during the early 2000s [Cook et al., 2009; Cook et al., 2014a; Seager and Hoerling, 2014; Seager et al., 2007; Woodhouse et al., 2010].”
• Tree mortality in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests, Arizona, USA (2011, positive): “Plots n ponderosa pine forest (n = 60) are indicated by circles, plots in mixed-conifer orest (n = 53) by triangles. orests likely under the most plausible global climate change sceario of increasing temperatures and aridity in the southwestern nited States (Seager et al., 2007).”
• Post-fire ponderosa pine regeneration with and without planting in Arizona and New Mexico (2015, neutral): “, 2012) and the entire region is expected to become more arid (Seager et al., 2007; Williams et al., 2013).”
• Tropical tree community shifts: Implications for wildlife conservation (2010, neutral): “This shift into a wetter precipitation regime is consistent with expected climatic changes in many areas of the tropics (Hulme et al., 2001; Seager et al., 2007).”
• Microbial enzymatic responses to drought and to nitrogen addition in a southern California grassland (2013, neutral): “Here, multiyear droughts are expected to occur more frequently in the future (Seager et al., 2007), and ecological impacts of pollution-related N deposition are among the most severe in the United States (Fenn et al.”
• Dynamic interactions of life and its landscape: feedbacks at the interface of geomorphology and ecology (2010, neutral): “…(Vitousek et al., 1997; Zakri1, 2008), changes in biogeochemical cycling (Piao et al., 2008), disease epidemics (Pounds et al., 2006) and direct changes in physical processes through increased storm activity (Emanuel, 2005), fl ooding (Milly et al., 2002) and drought (Seager et al., 2007).”
• Ecology, management, and conservation implications of North American beaver (Castor canadensis) in dryland streams (2014, neutral): “However, creation of rare perennial wetland habitat may also benefit the invasive bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus), which is widespread throughout the desert South-west.”
• Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States (2017, neutral): “1 3 land areas (Seager et al. 2007) might affect MLCAPE and CIN.”
• Changes in the severity of compound drought and hot extremes over global land areas (2018, neutral): “…in regions, including western US, central South America, central and southernAfrica, and southern and northeastern Asia is likely driven by long-term trends and decadal to multidecadal variations in sea surface temperature (Hoerling et al 2006, Seager et al 2007, Dai 2013, Schubert et al 2016).”
• Invertebrate assemblages of pools in arid‐land streams have high functional redundancy and are resistant to severe drying (2014, positive): “Droughts are predicted to increase in frequency and severity in many arid regions (Hoerling & Eischeid, 2007; Seager et al., 2007; Balling & Goodrich, 2010), and it is imperative that we understand how aquatic communities will respond to these events.”