Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign?

By Tomas Kögel. 2001

261 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Abstract.Recent literature finds that in OECD countries the cross-country correlation between the total fertility rate and the female labor force participation rate, which until the beginning of the 1980s had a negative value, has since acquired a positive value. This result is (explicitly or implicitly) often interpreted as evidence for a changing sign in the time-series association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries. This paper shows that the time-series association between fertility and female employment does not demonstrate a change in sign. Instead, the reversal in the sign of the cross-country correlation is most likely due to a combination of two elements: First, the presence of unmeasured country-specific factors and, second, country-heterogeneity in the magnitude of the negative time-series association between fertility and female employment. However, the paper does find evidence for a reduction in the negative time-series association between fertility and female employment after about 1985.

Subfields: Demography, Gender Studies, General Health Professions

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/409e6ccc28a7ba9219d717dc86ecf9a07af7efc9

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Citations in the corpus

On the Changing Correlation Between Fertility and Female Employment over Space and Time (2002, methodology): “Based on pooled cross-sectional data, Kögel (2004) shows that (a) unmeasured country-specific factors and (b) country-heterogeneity in the magnitude of the negative time-series association accounts for the reversal in the sign of the cross-country correlation coefficient.”
The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature (2007, background): “Such a conclusion has however been refuted by Kogel (2004) on the basis of econometrics evidence.”
Motherhood and Female Labor Supply in the Developing World: Evidence from Infertility Shocks (2011, methodology): “See also Kögel (2004) for an analysis of Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development countries and Schultz (2008) for a critical review of the literature. world, although the use of these types of events is prevalent in the United States.2 Furthermore, most of the existing empirical work…”
A theoretical grounding and test of the GEM model (2008, background): “lation (Kögel, 2004).”
Family policies in developed countries: a ‘fertility-booster’ with side-effects (2011, background): “Engelhardt, Kögel, and Prskawetz (2004) and Kögel (2004) mitigate that observation, however, by noting that the change in the direction of the correlation”