Sunspot cycle 24: Smallest cycle in 100 years?

By L. Svalgaard, E. Cliver, Y. Kamide. 2005

347 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Astronomy and Astrophysics, Oceanography

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/3cd9a6732412fa38122075712cb0db77bca158d6

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Citations in the corpus

Exploring the Physical Basis of Solar Cycle Predictions: Flux Transport Dynamics and Persistence of Memory in Advection- versus Diffusion-dominated Solar Convection Zones (2007, result): “The latter prediction is somewhat similar in spirit to the precursor methods (Schatten 2005; Svalgaard et al. 2005), which use the polar field at cycle minimum to predict the amplitude of the following cycle.”
Simulating and Predicting Solar Cycles Using a Flux-Transport Dynamo (2006, methodology): “This test contains at least twice as many cycles as have been used in the past to test so-called precursor models (Svalgaard et al. 2005; Schatten 2005).”
Fair space weather for solar cycle 24 (2005, methodology): “solar forecast as a result); however, we feel the polar field methods we and Svalgaard et al. [2005] employ would not be as sensitive to changes in polar field indices this late in the solar cycle.”
Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model (2007, methodology): “Svalgaard et al. (2005) suggested a simple relation that the maximum International Sunspot Number Rmax of cycle n will be proportional to the value of DM at the end of cycle n − 1, i.e. (Rmax)n = k(DM)n−1.”
The Solar Cycle (2007, background): “This has led to a prediction of 𝑅max(24) = 75 ± 8 by Svalgaard et al. (2005) – about half the size of the previous three cycles based on the polar fields being about half as strong.”
ON THE WEAKENING OF THE POLAR MAGNETIC FIELDS DURING SOLAR CYCLE 23 (2009, background): “…next cycle are generated by converting the pre-existing poloidal field into toroidal flux (Cameron & Schüssler 2007; Choudhuri et al. 2007; Dikpati 2008; Dikpati & Gilman 2006; Dikpati et al. 2006, 2008; Hathaway 2009; Schatten 2005; Svalgaard et al. 2005; Wang & Sheeley 2009; Yeates et al. 2008).”
Geomagnetic activity indicates large amplitude for sunspot cycle 24 (2006, methodology): “The recent (October 2003) peak in aaI indicates a sunspot number maximum for cycle 24 of about 160 ± 14. This prediction is very much in line with the predictions of a large cycle 24 by Hathaway and Wilson [2004] and by Dikpati et al. [2006] but in contrast to the prediction of a small cycle 24 by ”
Solar Cycle Prediction Using Precursors and Flux Transport Models (2006, background): “In fact, (Svalgaard et al. 2005) have reported a correlation between observed polar fields and sunspot activity of the subsequent cycle, but regular measurements of the polar fields exist only since about 1970 and still are rather uncertain and noisy (see, e.g., Arge et al. 2002).”
Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux‐transport dynamo‐based tool (2006, methodology): “…old cycle data has been attempted by various methods (see a detailed review by Hathaway et al. [1999, and references therein], A particularly popular current method [Svalgaard et al., 2005; Schatten, 2005] involves the use of polar fields from previous cycles as ‘‘precursors’’, of the next cycle.”
The Heliospheric Magnetic Field (2013, background): “Thus, cycle 24 is likely to be the weakest of the space age in terms of HMF strength and sunspot number (e.g., Svalgaard et al., 2005).”