Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study

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Self-confidence and strategic behavior (2017, unknown): “1 We note that while overconfidence is found in many studies, there is mixed evidence for it (see for instance Clark and Friesen 2009) and might be overestimated (Heger and Papageorge 2015).”
Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle (2011, unknown): “Our model is consistent with this finding if we interpret the profes- 3There are, however, exceptions; see, for example, Clark and Friesen (2009).”
Good news and bad news are still news: experimental evidence on belief updating (2019, unknown): “Clark and Friesen (2009) find little evidence of overconfidence in a related study on task experience rather than feedback.”
An Unlucky Feeling: Overconfidence and Noisy Feedback (2010, background): “Ertac (2009) finds evidence of pessimism in interpreting feedback that is incomplete (as opposed to noisy) and Clark and Friesen (2009) find zero mean error and underconfidence to be more prevalent in forecasts of both relative and absolute performance on a real effort task.”