Does the ripple effect influence the bullwhip effect? An integrated analysis of structural and operational dynamics in the supply chain†

By Alexandre Dolgui, Dmitry A. Ivanov, Maxim Rozhkov. International Journal of Production Research, 2019

305 citations recorded by the source corpus.

The ripple effect refers to structural dynamics and describes a downstream propagation of the downscaling in demand fulfilment in the supply chain (SC) as a result of a severe disruption. The bullwhip effect refers to operational dynamics and amplifies in the upstream direction as ordering oscillations. Being interested in uncovering if the ripple effect can be a driver of the bullwhip effect, we performed a simulation-based study to investigate the interrelations of the structural and operational dynamics in the SC. The results advance our knowledge about both ripple and bullwhip effects and reveal, for the first time, that the ripple effect can be a bullwhip-effect driver, while the latter can be launched by a severe disruption even in the downstream direction. The findings show that the ripple effect influences the bullwhip effect through backlog accumulation over the disruption time as a consequence of non-coordinated ordering and production planning policies. To cope with this effect, a contingent production-inventory control policy is proposed that provides results in favour of information coordination in SC disruption management to mitigate both ripple and bullwhip effects. The SC managers need to take into account the risk of bullwhip effect during the capacity disruption and recovery periods.

Subfields: Management Information Systems, Strategy and Management

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/38b3c266d8a1ca32f677a638376db95b68a79649

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Citations in the corpus

Coronavirus disease 2019 and the global economy (2020, unknown): “This result is in line with earlier studies such as by Ivanov et al. (2014), Garvey et al. (2015), Dolgui et al. (2018), Pavlov et al. (2019), Dolgui et al. (2020) or Li and Zobel (2020) who have shown that material shortages and delivery delays due to supply chain disruptions can easily result in…”
A digital supply chain twin for managing the disruption risks and resilience in the era of Industry 4.0 (2020, unknown): “In addition, blockchain applications to SCs, the creation of information pipeline systems, and SC finance systems are becoming more and more important for enhancing the scale and scope of T&T systems (Basole and Nowak 2018; Hofmann, Strewe, and Bosia 2018; Dolgui, Ivanov, and Rozhkov 2020b).”
Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case (2020, unknown): “The simulation models consider logical and randomness constraints, such as randomness in disruptions, inventory, production, sourcing, and shipment control policies, and gradual capacity degradation and recovery (Ivanov and Dolgui, 2020).”
Can supply chain risk management practices mitigate the disruption impacts on supply chains’ resilience and robustness? Evidence from an empirical survey in a COVID-19 outbreak era (2020, methodology): “The COVID-19 outbreak has put the resilience and robustness of SCs to the test in several industries with shortages in supply, lack of reactivity and production stops (Ivanov and Dolgui, 2020).”
Viable supply chain model: integrating agility, resilience and sustainability perspectives—lessons from and thinking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic (2020, background): “In addition, a few studies investigated structural and operational dynamics in the SC in an integrated manner (Ivanov and Sokolov 2019; Dolgui et al. 2020b).”
Disruption risks in supply chain management: a literature review based on bibliometric analysis (2020, background): “It seems that the ripple effect has drawn widespread attention in the field of SCD (e.g. Ivanov, Sokolov, and Dolgui 2014; Levner and Ptuskin 2018; Liberatore, Scaparra, and Daskin 2012; Dolgui, Ivanov, and Rozhkov 2019).”
A case study on strategies to deal with the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic in the food and beverage industry (2020, background): “The impacts of these disruptions are severe, because such crises have long-lasting ripple effects and can impact the operations at multiple levels simultaneously, including sourcing, production, and distribution (Ivanov 2020a; see also Choi 2020; Ivanov 2020b; Ivanov & Dolgui 2020; Samson 2020).”