Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes

By M. Baldwin, T. Dunkerton. Science, 2001

1,897 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/3897e23e842805da26f3a8dfc8c3074c1ae275f5

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Atmospheric Science

1. D. Hartmann
2. A. Butler
3. M. Lockwood
4. Adam A. Scaife
5. C. Garfinkel
6. L. Gray
7. L. Polvani
8. William J. Randel

In Global and Planetary Change

1. D. Hartmann
2. A. Butler
3. M. Lockwood
4. Adam A. Scaife
5. C. Garfinkel
6. L. Gray
7. L. Polvani
8. J. Perlwitz

Citations in the corpus

• Geomagnetic activity signatures in wintertime stratosphere wind, temperature, and wave response (2013, background): “Together these lead to strengthening of the polar vortex and, through that, to a positive modulation of the NAM [Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001], linking to the positive NAM anomalies from geomagnetic and EPP forcing reported previously by, e.g., Seppälä et al. [2009] and Baumgaertner et al. [2011].”
• The NAO Troposphere-Stratosphere Connection. (2002, background): “7) at 10–15 days and the very recent results of Thompson and Wallace (2001) and Baldwin and Dunkerton (2001) suggest some predictability in Northern Hemisphere high-latitude weather associated with it.”
• The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 1. Simulation Characteristics With Prescribed SSTs (2018, background): “The wind and temperature anomalies associated with the stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) can propagate downward into the troposphere and significantly alter the weather at the surface (e.g., Baldwin & Dunkerton, 2001; Scaife et al., 2005).”
• Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions (2012, background): “[4] A substantial body of research has indicated an influence of the stratospheric vortex on high latitude circulations at Earth’s surface, with a strengthened vortex associated with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation [Baldwin and Dunkerton, 1999, 2001; Thompson et al., 2002; B”
• Stratosphere-troposphere evolution during polar vortex intensification (2005, background): “[4] The key to downward stratospheric influence (and its amplification) lies in the projection of the descending flow anomalies onto the tropospheric component of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) [Baldwin and Dunkerton, 1999, 2001].”
• Stratospheric Connection to Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Weather: Implications for Prediction (2002, background): “The high-index polarity of the NAM is characterized by low sea level pressure over the Pole and anomalously strong westerlies along ;558N. Baldwin and Dunkerton (2001) showed that weakenings of the polar vortex tend to be followed by extended periods in which the NAM is biased toward its low-index…”
• The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time‐scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts (2015, methodology): “In the following sections, we group experiments by type and summarize their collective results.”
• The stratospheric pathway for Arctic impacts on midlatitude climate (2016, background): “…stratosphere-troposphere coupling is a dynamical process by which planetary-scale waves propagate upward, followed by weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and the downward progress of its signal back to the troposphere [Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001; Nishii et al., 2011; Kidston et al., 2015].”
• What Is the Polar Vortex and How Does It Influence Weather (2017, background): “…in summer circulation and weather in the Southern Hemisphere due to an ozone hole–induced strengthening of the Antarctic polar vortex (Thompson et al. 2011) as well as connections between weak and strong Arctic stratospheric vortex events and extreme surface weather (Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001).”
• Tropopause referenced ozone climatology and inter-annual variability (1994–2003) from the MOZAIC programme (2005, positive): “6.3 Correlation with atmospheric teleconnection indices: North Atlantic Oscillation and Northern Annular Mode According to Baldwin and Dunkerton (2001), observations show that large variations in the strength of the stratospheric circulation, appearing above 50 km, descend to the lowermost…”
• The Remarkably Strong Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex of Winter 2020: Links to Record‐Breaking Arctic Oscillation and Ozone Loss (2020, methodology): “Note that the NAM and AO refer to identical phenomena (Baldwin, 2001; Baldwin & Dunkerton, 2001), but herein we use the NAM to refer to the vertically resolved profile of mass fluctuations in the NH extratropical circulation and the AO to refer to the near-surface pattern.”
• Stratospheric Communication of El Niño Teleconnections to European Winter (2009, background): “In recent years there has been growing evidence advocating for a significant two-way dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere (Shaw and Shepherd 2008), on time scales ranging from the seasonal to climatic (Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001; Gillett and Thompson 2003).”
• SOLAR INFLUENCES ON CLIMATE (2010, methodology): “[95] However, recent recognition of the influence of stratospheric processes on climate in general [Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001] has prompted the vertical extension of coupled ocean‐atmosphere climate models to include the stratosphere, so that fully coupled ocean‐troposphere‐ stratosphere climate…”