Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change

By E. Wolkovich, B. Cook, J. Allen, T. Crimmins, J. Betancourt, S. Travers, S. Pau, James Regetz, T. Jonathan Davies, Nathan J B Kraft and 9 more. Nature, 2012

953 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology, Plant Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/21470b47ec7f2bb0161e82d90ca65d78dd2f034c

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Citations in the corpus

Drought and Its Consequences to Plants – From Individual to Ecosystem (2013, background): “[126] concluded that such experimental studies underpredict plant phenological responses to global warming.”
Direct and indirect effects of climate change on soil microbial and soil microbial‐plant interactions: What lies ahead? (2015, background): “…(Grabherr et al. 1994, Walther et al. 2002, Parmesan and Yohe 2003), are leafing out and flowering earlier in the growing season (e.g., Cleland et al. 2007, Wolkovich et al. 2012), and are altering the expression of functional traits (Walker et al. 2006, Hudson et al. 2011, Verheijen et al. 2015).”
Latitudinal gradients as natural laboratories to infer species' responses to temperature (2013, background): “These unintended disturbances in experimental settings can result in, for instance, the underprediction of phenological responses to warming as detected in observational studies (Wolkovich et al. 2012; but see Harte & Kueppers 2012).”
A critique for eco‐evolutionary dynamics (2019, result): “Overall, however, me‐ socosm experiments tend to generate results that are quite different from those observed in nature (Skelly & Kiesecker, 2001; Stewart et al., 2013; Wolkovich et al., 2012).”
Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence (2014, background): “For these and probably other reasons, experimental studies often do a poor job of predicting observed trends in natural populations (Wolkovich et al. 2012).”
Ecological effects of extreme drought on Californian herbaceous plant communities (2016, background): “Experiments may seem ideal for predicting the effects of short- term events such as climate extremes, but they have been shown to underpredict some of the effects of ambient climatic variation (Penuelas et al. 2007, Wolkovich et al. 2012, Elmendorf et al. 2015).”
Distinct effects of climate warming on populations of silver fir (Abies alba) across Europe (2015, background): “Warming trends can influence vegetation patterns by modifying the start and duration of the growing season, and abrupt air temperature increase can alter growth responses (Wolkovich et al., 2012).”
Tree phenology responses to winter chilling, spring warming, at north and south range limits (2014, methodology): “Degree-day models are increasingly used not only to explain geographic variation in onset of the growing season (Ib a~nez et al. 2010; Yang et al. 2012; Terres et al. 2013) but also to quantify responses to climate variation (e.g. Menzel et al. 2006; Wolkovich et al. 2012; Polger & Primack 2011).”