On the psychology of prediction

By Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky. 1973

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

Citations in the corpus

Flawed Self-Assessment (2004, unknown): “A heuristic that is often used to judge the frequency of events is based on availability (i.e., in memory)—an event or behavior is perceived to be more common the more memorable or accessible to memory it is (Kahneman & Tversky,1973).”
Self-predictions overweight strength of current intentions (2006, background): “Kahneman and Tversky (1973) observed that people engage in ''prediction by evaluation,'' in which predictions (e.g., of a teacherÕs competence five years after leaving teachers college) are just as extreme as the evaluations (e.g., of the teacherÕs performance in a practice lesson during college)…”
Fairness in representation: quantifying stereotyping as a representational harm (2019, methodology): “This deﬁnition is based on the rep-resentativeness heuristic due to Kahnemann and Tver-sky [22, 23], a similarity heuristic that people rely on to judge the likelihood of uncertain events, instead of following the principles of probability theory [36].”
No Place for Nostalgia in Science: A Response to Arkes and Tetlock (2004, background): “Arkes and Tetlock’s (this issue) article draws an analogy to simple experiments showing that people often give too little weight to base-rate information (e.g., Kahneman & Tversky, 1973).”
Entrepreneurs’ decision making under different levels of uncertainty: the role of emotions (2013, background): “Emotions and propensity to invest under different levels of uncertainty Research has already pointed out that entrepreneurial decision making often departs from the rational economic model (Kahneman and Tversky, 1973) and emotions and cognitive biases are now regarded as important theoretical phenom”
Propensities and counterfactuals: The loser that almost won (1990, methodology): “The information about the individual case largely supersedes the information about the base rate, instead of combining with it according to Bayes’ rule ( Kahneman & Tversky, 1973 ).”
Who Are the Value and Growth Investors (2017, unknown): “They may also pay more attention to recent events than Bayesian updating would imply (Kahneman and Tversky 1973).”
Fifty-Year Overview of Judgment and Decision-Making Research in Accounting (2011, unknown): “Evidence in the psychology literature (e.g. Kahneman and Tversky, 1973) suggested that participants ignored base rates in generic decision-making situations.”